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El Nino has occurred multiple times throughout history, with at least 30 El Nino events from 1900 to the present. Some El Nino phenomena are stronger and longer-lasting than average, causing serious consequences for the environment and humans. The following article by Mytour will help readers understand What is El Nino and how long does El Nino 2023 last.
1. What is the El Nino phenomenon?
The phenomenon of El Nino is an abnormal increase in sea surface temperature in the central equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. El Nino typically lasts from 8 to 12 months or longer. Normally, El Nino occurs every 3-4 years, but there are periods when it is more frequent or sparse.
The El Nino phenomenon causes many adverse effects on global weather, especially in tropical regions. Here are some significant impacts of El Nino:
- South America: On the western coasts, El Nino increases the risk of severe flooding. Conversely, areas on the eastern coast face the risk of drought.
(*) Floods can occur due to tidal waves, storms, or prolonged heavy rain. It causes significant damage to property and human lives. See more flood images in Central Vietnam and other countries around the world to witness the severe impact of this phenomenon.
- East Asian countries: Countries like India and Indonesia experience increased drought. Overall, El Nino brings more rain to the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean (western coast of South America) and dry weather to the western part (India, Indonesia).
- Global climate: El Nino leads to the release of energy into the atmosphere, resulting in a global climate warming phenomenon. The year 2016 was recorded as the hottest year in history with the strong influence of El Nino.
- Vietnam: Research on data over the past 50 years shows a clear impact of the El Nino phenomenon on climate change, weather, and hydrological regimes in Vietnam in general, especially in the Southern region.
Causes leading to the El Nino phenomenon: The interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. Typically, the trade winds blow from East to West and push warm seawater from the equatorial region towards the Western Pacific. When the trade winds weaken or blow in the opposite direction, warm seawater will flow back towards the Eastern Pacific, causing warming of the surface seawater in this area.
For El Nino to occur, three main conditions are required:
When all three conditions occur simultaneously, the El Nino phenomenon will be triggered, causing climate and weather changes globally.
2. How long does El Nino 2023 last?
According to the National Weather Forecasting Center, the El Nino phenomenon is likely to occur in late May or early June 2023, with a probability of around 70-80%, and may extend into early 2024. El Nino typically causes rainfall deficits of 25-50% in most regions nationwide, significantly affecting production and daily life.
Many international meteorological agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have made similar predictions, indicating that El Nino will occur from mid-2023 and continue until 2024.
La Nina is a climate phenomenon opposite to El Nino, characterized by abnormally cold sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region. La Nina phenomena usually have similar or shorter cycles than El Nino and often occur immediately after El Nino weakens.
Through Mytour's insights, hopefully, it has helped readers understand What is El Nino; How long does El Nino 2023 last. Understanding the phenomena of El Nino and La Nina is essential for preparing and coping with their impacts.
