Buzz
Over the last two centuries, humanity has collectively devised increasingly sophisticated methods to jeopardize life on Earth. The creation of gunpowder marked a groundbreaking advancement in large-scale destruction—wars decimated significant portions of the population. However, subsequent inventions have rendered such devastation almost trivial in comparison.
One enduring danger has persisted throughout history, yet it continues to be underestimated. The coronavirus outbreak is unfolding in real-time, with infections spreading globally. It has crippled infrastructure in China and neighboring nations, catching even the most technologically advanced country—and the world at large—completely off guard.
This recent outbreak has stunned everyone because we’ve overlooked the fact that pandemics, not nuclear weapons or other threats, pose the greatest risk to humanity. Despite our technological advancements—some of which may even hinder us during epidemics—the possibility of a virus emerging unexpectedly and erasing civilization remains as real as ever.
10. Globalization is Exacerbating the Crisis, Not Alleviating It
One might assume that today's interconnected world significantly reduces the risk of infectious diseases compared to any other period in history. To some extent, this is true, as global connectivity enhances our collective understanding in various fields, particularly medicine. When information about a disease in a remote area becomes available, biologists worldwide can analyze it and develop preventive measures.
However, the issue arises when a severe outbreak—such as 2019-nCoV—occurs, turning the advantages of global networks into disadvantages. Often, we lack the means to detect these viruses, as they are typically unknown strains never encountered before (more on this later). With extensive, interconnected transportation systems moving people globally but no reliable method to identify infections, outbreaks can spread rapidly and evolve defenses before detection. For instance, the Avian flu outbreak involved a stronger, previously unidentified strain of a bird-exclusive virus, likely an ancient disease that only became a threat recently.
9. Pandemics Have Claimed More Lives Than Any Other Catastrophe
The reason pandemics aren't perceived as a significant threat stems from the belief that we are now more resistant to them or that they cause fewer fatalities compared to other disasters, such as nuclear weapons. While advancements in pathogen detection and treatment have improved our ability to combat them, the number of pathogens has also increased, including strains previously unknown to humans. Historically, pandemic-related deaths far surpass those from any other disaster.
You don’t need to look far into history; we are currently experiencing several severe pandemics. The AIDS virus has claimed approximately 40 million lives so far. The influenza virus causes about 80,000 to 100,000 deaths annually in the U.S. alone, which is just a fraction of its global death toll of 650,000.
Throughout history, global pandemics have been the most devastating forces of mass destruction humanity has ever encountered. Consider the Justinian Plague, which claimed approximately 100 million lives over several centuries. At its peak during the initial outbreak, it’s estimated that around 10,000 people per day died in Constantinople alone. The Spanish Flu, which emerged during World War I—a conflict with the second-highest death toll of 40 million—killed over 100 million people in just a few months.
Several factors prevented these viruses from wiping out humanity entirely. For instance, the Spanish Flu gradually became less severe over time, as if it chose to spare us. Additionally, the world was far less interconnected during these pandemics compared to today. If a more potent strain of any of these plagues were to reemerge, its impact would likely be far more catastrophic in our modern, globalized world.
8. Each New Outbreak Demands Starting Over
As of now, multiple nations, including the U.S., have implemented mandatory quarantine measures at major airports. Countries worldwide have also issued emergency health alerts to prevent the spread of 2019-nCoV, despite new cases emerging daily. China appears to be in complete lockdown, with over 200 deaths and 10,000 infections reported. This raises the question: why are we consistently unprepared for disease outbreaks every few years?
The answer is straightforward: our medical technology remains insufficient to quickly detect and develop cures for new outbreaks. Existing medical knowledge often doesn’t apply to novel strains, necessitating fresh research and diagnosis. This delay proves costly, as most fatalities in history’s worst pandemics occurred in the early stages, before containment strategies could be devised. While medieval solutions were as basic as avoiding unsanitary conditions, even modern pandemics like the Spanish Flu were deadliest at their onset. Each new outbreak requires us to start from square one, significantly hindering our ability to respond effectively.
7. Their Power is Increasing at an Alarming Rate
When examining recent severe outbreaks, such as the coronavirus, the most alarming aspects often involve gruesome details. Consider Ebola. The sight of hazmat suits and tales of healthcare workers succumbing to the virus while aiding local populations were deeply unsettling. While these images are tragic, they aren't the most frightening aspect. Beyond the lens of mainstream media, numerous other diseases cause deaths in far more terrifying manners.
The most troubling aspect isn't just that we faced a strain with no existing defenses. It's that with each new Ebola outbreak—still ongoing—we discover it's a more potent version of a previous strain. This indicates that viruses are becoming increasingly adept at survival and evolving at a pace beyond our expectations. Even the current coronavirus outbreak stems from a strain that originally couldn't infect humans but has mutated to do so. This strain is more robust and aggressive than any previously identified, explaining the significant crisis it has caused in China. These outbreaks underscore a long-standing warning from biologists: the evolution of more powerful virus strains resistant to our medications poses a grave threat to humanity.
6. Vaccines Can Make Certain Viruses More Lethal
While vaccines have their detractors, their role in eliminating some of the most devastating diseases known to mankind is undeniable. Thanks to vaccines, the streets are no longer filled with victims of diseases that were once common centuries ago, such as those caused by consuming contaminated food.
From a scientific perspective, vaccines have an unintended consequence. Research indicates that vaccines can intensify the lethality of viruses, particularly the most dangerous ones. This phenomenon is biologically plausible, as vaccines administered to poultry and pets might strengthen certain diseases, enabling them to potentially jump to humans and cause widespread devastation.
Numerous scientists have disputed the study, arguing that its findings are limited to chickens and could fuel anti-vaccine sentiments. Regardless of the target population or public opinion on vaccines, unless we develop alternative methods for vaccine creation, we may face the risk of an uncontrollable pandemic with catastrophic consequences as one of its potential side effects.
5. A Growing Number of Previously Undiscovered Viruses Are Emerging
The connection between climate change and pathogens is a topic of debate. While warmer temperatures undoubtedly facilitate the spread of diseases to new regions, this issue could be mitigated through global governmental cooperation.
A more urgent link between climate change and a potential virus-driven extinction event is found in the Arctic. The permafrost, especially in Siberia, is thought to contain numerous dormant and hazardous pathogens. Many experts believe that several recent virus strains, such as Ebola, originated from thawing permafrost, a theory that seems increasingly plausible.
In recent years, numerous new virus strains, including the coronavirus, have emerged, a trend that remains largely unexplained. According to experts, the thawing permafrost could release diseases we have never encountered or managed before, posing unprecedented challenges.
4. Microbes Remain Enigmatic and Challenging to Study
If asked about the most abundant life forms on Earth after humans, many might guess mammals. However, biologists and data reveal that microbes surpass all other organisms in terms of numbers, diversity, and adaptability to various environments. Microbes thrive in the most extreme conditions, from the ocean's deepest trenches to outer space. While their resilience is remarkable, their vast diversity makes them incredibly difficult to study and combat.
The true extent of microbial diversity on Earth remains unknown. For instance, researchers recently discovered a previously unidentified bacterium in the human gut, so unique that it required the creation of an entirely new branch of life. This microbe likely diverged from known life forms early in evolutionary history. Such discoveries highlight the vast, alien-like complexity of the microbial world, which we may never fully comprehend but must understand to combat pandemics that threaten civilization.
3. Certain Viruses Pose Far Greater Threats Than 2019-nCoV
The Spanish Flu and Black Death are infamous for their massive death tolls and global impact. Their terrifying reputation stems from the millions of lives they claimed and the societal upheaval they caused.
However, when compared to other, less deadly but more horrifying outbreaks, their impact pales in comparison. History has witnessed outbreaks far more severe than the Spanish Flu, such as the 15th-century English Sweating Sickness, which claimed lives in gruesome ways. These events remain lesser-known because they faded naturally and had lower mortality rates. If such diseases were to reemerge and persist, they could pose a greater challenge than any pandemic in recorded history.
What’s more concerning is that some of these diseases stem from enigmatic virus families we lack the knowledge to combat. Even the Spanish Flu was a mutation of a known influenza strain. Many biologists argue that the true danger lies in pathogens entirely unlike anything we’ve encountered before.
2. We’ve Also Played a Role in Making Them Stronger
Throughout history, humanity has often been powerless against devastating pandemics. Today, viruses are growing stronger as a consequence of antibiotics and other modern necessities for comfortable living. While it’s not entirely our fault, the best we can do is bolster our medical systems and remain prepared for the worst.
When examining past actions by leading governments and scientific bodies, it becomes clear that we bear at least partial responsibility for some outbreaks. Numerous conspiracy theories suggest that recent pandemics originated in military laboratories, and there’s no concrete evidence to dismiss these claims. Military budgets have long allocated significant resources to biological and chemical research, which, given the potential for civilian pandemics, raises serious concerns about the wisdom of such practices.
Alarmingly, the U.S. government recently lifted restrictions on the types of pathogens that can be developed in labs, granting both private and public institutions the freedom to create more lethal virus strains. While the intent behind this research is to combat diseases, the risk of misuse for financial or other motives is too significant to overlook.
There have also been isolated incidents where human error led to virus leaks, such as the last H1N1 outbreak. Scientists traced the strain back to the 1950s and discovered that its resurgence was due to improper handling of a sample by a lab worker.
1. The Next Pandemic Is Imminent, and We’re Unprepared
The coronavirus outbreak underscores our continued reliance on nature’s benevolence for survival. Despite scientific warnings about the imminent threat of a global pandemic, our systems remain ill-equipped to handle a sudden virus outbreak effectively.
According to a study, a global outbreak occurring today could result in over 80 million deaths, exacerbated by the fragile healthcare systems in numerous countries worldwide. Biologists are also identifying an unprecedented number of previously unknown virus strains in animals, especially livestock, at a rate far higher than in the past. Additional research warns that the next pandemic is imminent—if it hasn’t already arrived with 2019-nCoV—and our current level of preparedness is woefully inadequate.
