Buzz
Numbers, statistics, and percentages wield an unusual influence: they command trust. Share an opinion, and it’s often dismissed. Present a fact, and it gains significance. Consequently, people often misuse statistics, applying them to even the most absurd scenarios.
One researcher took this to the extreme by developing a mathematical equation for the ideal buttocks:
Unfortunately, the formula is tailored exclusively to female anatomy, leaving the appeal of men’s buttocks an enigmatic puzzle.
Admittedly, the butt formula was never taken seriously. However, throughout history, numerous widespread deceptions have succeeded due to the flawed mathematics behind them.
10. Death By Coconut
You might have come across the urban myth claiming that falling coconuts cause 15 times more deaths than shark attacks. Initially, it may seem unbelievable, but it’s often supported by seemingly credible statistics—at least, until you grasp how data extrapolation functions.
While coconuts aren’t nearly as deadly as sharks, they do account for a notable number of injuries in one specific place: the Provincial Hospital in Papua, New Guinea. The origin of the coconut myth traces back to a 1984 study by Dr. Peter Barss in the Journal of Trauma, where he observed that 2.5 percent of hospital admissions over four years were due to injuries from falling coconuts.
The issue? In May 2002, renowned shark expert George Burgess extrapolated that data globally—a flawed approach unless every region had as many palm trees as New Guinea. Despite this, the claim persisted. Burgess is frequently referenced as a definitive source for the misleading statistic that coconuts cause 15 times more fatalities than sharks.
How does Dr. Barss feel about the public’s reaction? He finds it far from amusing. “When you’re dealing with these injuries every day, it’s no laughing matter,” he told the Canadian Medical Association. He’s absolutely correct. A typical coconut weighs 2.0 kilograms (4.5 lb) and falls from 25 meters (80 ft), generating an impact force of up to 1,000 kilograms (2,200 lb).
9. Blonds Are Facing Extinction
Natural blondes are predicted to disappear within 200 years. A 2002 BBC report claimed that blondes are an endangered species and will vanish by 2202. Numerous outlets, including The Sunday Times, echoed this, stating that “the last natural blond will likely be born in Finland around 2202.”
However, it turned out to be a total fabrication, as the World Health Organization (WHO) had to clarify. The WHO’s dry wit in their statement was unmistakable:
In response to recent media reports . . . WHO would like to clarify that it has never conducted any research on this topic. Additionally, to the best of its knowledge, WHO has never released a report suggesting that natural blondes will become extinct by 2202. [ . . . ] We have no stance on the future existence of blondes.
8. Statistics Can Craft the ‘Most Wanted Painting Ever’
In 1994, the polling agency Marttila & Kiley gathered extensive data in the US to identify what Americans considered the most appealing traits in paintings. About 66 percent favored “soft curves” over “sharp angles,” while 33 percent desired autumn scenes compared to just 15 percent for winter. An overwhelming 88 percent preferred outdoor settings over indoor ones.
The survey was conducted for Russian-American artists Vitaly Komar and Alex Melamid. They proceeded to create the most desired—and the least desired—paintings for Russia, China, Italy, and 10 other nations.
The artists didn’t provide a detailed explanation of how they interpreted the data. However, some of the poll results were perplexing. For instance, blue won both the “favorite color” and “second favorite color” categories, with 44 percent and 19 percent of American respondents, respectively. This raises questions about how much blue should dominate the painting.
Since Komar and Melamid haven’t achieved global fame, their reliance on this data seems to have fallen short of validating their claims. As artist Jonathan Keats remarked, “If this is America’s most wanted painting, imagine what laws the president and Congress believe you want enacted.”
7. Women Will Outpace Men by 2156
In 2004, the prestigious, peer-reviewed journal Nature published an article titled, “Will women surpass men by 2156?” The study analyzed data from Olympic 100-meter dash records dating back to 1900, originally examined by Andrew Tatem of the University of Oxford.
The data suggested that women’s sprint times are gradually closing the gap with men’s. Extrapolating this trend, the study predicted that female sprinters could outperform men by the 2156 Olympics, with a statistical margin of error spanning 724 years. However, this margin of error was notably absent from the article’s headline.
However, the study was flawed. Physiologists pointed out that it overlooked natural limits imposed by testosterone levels and body weight, which give men an advantage. One expert even described the analysis as “fundamentally flawed.”
What might explain the trend? Advances in health and training since the early 20th century may have influenced athletic performance more than gender. Still, gender differences will likely remain a factor, albeit a diminishing one.
Common sense must guide such analyses. Not all trends can continue indefinitely—otherwise, female athletes would be running at light speed within a thousand years.
6. Half of All Marriages End in Divorce
Divorce rates in the US reached their highest point in the 1970s and have been steadily declining since. However, popular belief still clings to a single, authoritative-sounding figure to support the idea of societal decline: 50 percent of all marriages end in divorce.
As New York Times journalist Tara Parker-Pope notes, the true source of this statistic is “unclear.” In fact, she dedicated an entire chapter of her marriage guide to disproving this misconception.
Since the 1970s, this figure has been far from accurate, especially as more women pursued higher education and postponed marriage. Numerous other factors, from changes in divorce laws that temporarily inflated rates to evolving societal attitudes, have also played a role. Unfortunately, there’s no definitive divorce rate available. However, one thing is clear: The current divorce rate is significantly lower than 50 percent.
The persistence of this statistic likely stems from its versatility as a “political Swiss Army knife,” Parker-Pope explains. Social conservatives see it as evidence of the erosion of traditional marriage, while liberals may use it to advocate for support programs for single mothers.
5. More Than Half of Detroit’s Population Is Illiterate
In 2013, a contentious assertion reemerged: Over 50 percent of Detroit’s residents are illiterate. This claim had previously surfaced in 2011 and was reported by major outlets such as CBS, Fox, and the Huffington Post. Back then, the statistic was derived from a “new” study that referenced an older analysis, which itself relied on outdated data.
The original source? A 1993 national survey that interviewed 26,000 individuals.
The data was already outdated by five years when it was referenced in a 1998 analysis by the National Institute for Literacy. However, this survey never offered a reliable depiction of Detroit’s literacy levels.
The study estimates Detroit’s functional literacy rate at 47 percent but includes a significant disclaimer often overlooked. Appendix A notes that “there is no direct evidence validating the model’s predictions for Congressional districts or city/town/place census areas” and advises that “caution is warranted.” Thus, while the model may apply to countries, its accuracy for cities remains unverified.
According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the latest literacy data for Detroit is available only at the county level. Based on 2003 figures, approximately 12 percent of Wayne County, Michigan, residents lacked “basic prose literacy skills.”
Extrapolating data is inherently risky. Yet, the media frenzy surrounding Detroit’s literacy highlights how an outdated statistic can persist for years. Ultimately, the conclusions drawn from this study reveal more about journalists’ struggles with interpreting statistics than about Detroit’s literacy challenges.
4. Women Face a Higher Risk of Breast Cancer After an Abortion
Joel Brind’s 1996 meta-analysis claimed that a woman’s risk of breast cancer rises by 30 percent following an abortion. Under the 2003 Woman’s Right to Know Act, Texas abortion providers are required to inform clients of this alleged link. However, this connection is a widely circulated piece of misleading information.
The issue lies in confusing correlation with causation. Even if a minor correlation exists between breast cancer rates and abortion rates, this statistical relationship does not prove that abortions cause breast cancer.
There are both mathematical and scientific explanations for this. Additionally, common sense plays a role. In areas with strong pro-life sentiments, women may be less likely to admit to having had an abortion in surveys. This reluctance might also occur in regions without such strong views, as abortion is a deeply personal topic. Why risk privacy or face potential backlash by disclosing such information to a statistician?
Moreover, if data is collected from a specific group, such as women diagnosed with breast cancer, their responses might differ from those of the general population. A serious health scare like cancer might prompt women to be more forthcoming about their medical history, including past abortions. However, there’s no definitive way to confirm this assumption.
If women with breast cancer are more likely to disclose their medical histories, those without cancer who have had abortions may remain underrepresented in the data. This makes it difficult to determine how many women who underwent abortions did not develop breast cancer.
Another red flag is that Brind seemed to have reached his conclusion before conducting his study. When Science News refused to publish his letter challenging one of their articles on pregnancy and breast cancer risk, he may have sought another way to promote his viewpoint.
As reported in the Christian publication World, Brind stated, “I know abortion raises the risk of breast cancer, and this journal [Science News] is hiding it. Someone needs to expose this because many women are suffering and dying as a result.”
Two years after Brind’s analysis, an independent study found “no increased risk of breast cancer” among women who had abortions, and a 2003 National Cancer Institute workshop further debunked the claim.
3. Joe McCarthy’s List
On February 9, 1950, US Senator Joe McCarthy alleged that the US State Department was “completely infiltrated by communists.” His evidence? A list of 205 Communist Party members allegedly embedded within the government. He didn’t provide specific names but instead brandished a number.
However, the number shifted. Contrary to reports, McCarthy later insisted he had said “57.” Then, on February 20, he compromised and referred to “81 individuals posing loyalty risks.”
McCarthy didn’t invent these numbers entirely. A 1947 investigation had identified 108 State Department employees with potential security or loyalty concerns. By 1948, only 57 of these individuals remained employed by the State Department.
We might assume that the investigation had exonerated these 57 employees, or we could label them “card-carrying communists,” as McCarthy did. His figure of 81 was derived from the 108 case studies. Meanwhile, the number 205 originated from a 1946 congressional report stating that 79 out of 284 potential security risks had been dismissed.
On the defensive, the US government rushed to identify the source of McCarthy’s numbers. McCarthy, however, was unfazed. He famously declared, “I don’t respond to accusations. I make them.”
The impact of his list was so profound that his influence is now known as “McCarthyism,” a term defined as the act of making baseless accusations. McCarthy’s tactics also serve as a prime example of how numbers can be manipulated. He incited a witch hunt by casually tossing out random figures to a fearful and divided public.
2. The Mystery of the Bermuda Triangle
The Bermuda Triangle stands as one of the most iconic real-life mysteries, often fueling conspiracy theories. Whenever a ship or plane disappears in this Atlantic Ocean region, the popular belief resurfaces that some mysterious force capable of destroying transportation lurks within the Bermuda Triangle.
Some websites claim this force consumed 11 aircraft over a span of 22 years. The key to this alarming statistic? A lack of proper context.
As highlighted by the BBC, a 2013 study revealed that the Bermuda Triangle didn’t even rank among the top 10 areas for shipping accidents or disappearances. While ships and planes vanish worldwide, proponents of this theory conveniently ignore data from outside the Bermuda Triangle.
In a Playboy interview, Carl Sagan explained the fallacy: “Compared to other heavily traveled regions of the Atlantic, do ships and planes vanish more frequently? The answer is no. Why is it always planes and ships? Because they can sink. If trains started disappearing—say, in a Duluth Triangle—that would be intriguing.”
1. The Average Man Has Slept With 7 Women
Between 1999 and 2002, the National Center for Health Statistics gathered data on the number of sexual partners among US men and women. Their findings suggested that the average man has slept with seven women, while the average woman has slept with four men.
This is yet another example of misleading data, stemming from a simple issue: outright dishonesty.
Generally, men aim to portray themselves as having a “moderately” active sexual history, while women prefer to present a “moderately” modest one. However, their actual histories may not align with these portrayals, leading to false responses in surveys about sexual behavior.
Consequently, gender stereotypes about sexual activity reinforce themselves. To conform to societal expectations, enough individuals may fabricate their number of sexual partners, creating a skewed statistic that reflects an idealized, rather than real, societal norm.
To encourage more honest answers, subsequent studies connected participants to lie detector machines, though the devices weren’t always operational—a fact unknown to the respondents. Believing their honesty might be verified, both male and female participants reported similar numbers of sexual partners.
