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In the last 70 years, the global birth rate has fallen from about five children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 today, with 2.1 being the level needed for population replacement. In countries like Serbia, the birth rate was just 1.1 in 2023 and is continuing to drop into 2024. On the other hand, in African nations such as Chad, the average woman has seven children.
Many wealthy and influential figures, including Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, have raised alarms about this issue. Movements like Quiverfull and the Natal Conference are dedicated to reversing this trend and boosting birth rates. However, the evidence suggests that these efforts are, to put it bluntly, futile. As this list will show, the movement is poorly supported by those leading it.
10. Abortion Restrictions Aren’t Solving the Issue
It is clear that since the Dobbs decision, which removed federal protections for abortion rights in certain conservative states, birth rates have increased in those areas. For example, Texas saw a rise of 16,000 births between 2021 and 2022, with about 84% of those being Latino/Hispanic teens. This might appear to resolve the problem, regardless of one's views on bodily autonomy or the quality of life for parents.
As of 2024, the situation has not improved significantly. South Dakota, which has seen the largest increase in birth rates, reached only a 2.0 increase in 2022, still below the replacement level. Despite the abortion bans, many demographic groups are still experiencing a decline in net birth rates.
Looking at Texas, Hispanic teen births increased by 13,000 and rose 5% overall in the same year, while births among white females decreased by 0.2%, and black births dropped by 0.6%. White teen pregnancies, in particular, fell by 5%. The birth rate would have fallen even more drastically without the overturning of Roe v. Wade (for example, California's birth rate dropped by 20,000 in 2022), but the targets have not yet been reached.
9. The High Cost and Risks of Giving Birth
In many countries, healthcare costs have skyrocketed, and the financial burden of childbirth is no exception. With the current birth crisis, there should be policies encouraging childbirth. However, the reality is that, as of January 2024, the average cost for an uninsured birth is $18,865.
For those with insurance, the average cost is about $2,655 for an uncomplicated vaginal birth. However, if a caesarean section is necessary (which occurs in approximately 30% of cases), the cost increases to $25,820 for the uninsured and $3,200 for insured patients. This occurs in a context where 63% of U.S. employees report being unable to afford a $500 emergency.
Some traditionalists may suggest choosing a home delivery to reduce costs, which can make sense from a purely financial perspective. If an expectant parent hires a midwife, insurance may cover some of the fees. However, these services can still be costly, with an uninsured bill often reaching $6,000. It's important to note that only 21 states offer Medicaid coverage for home deliveries.
However, there is one major issue with home deliveries: they are twice as likely to result in the death of the newborn. As a result, it's no surprise that 37% of people attempting a home delivery ultimately end up in a hospital, which adds thousands to their medical expenses. Criticizing single women or couples for hesitating to go through with such a risky and expensive procedure is unreasonable.
8. The Growing Issue of Birth Defects
Certain regions have seen birth defect rates increase by as much as 50%, such as the United Kingdom between the 1990s and 2000s. These defects range from cleft lips to conditions where intestines are outside the body, fatal heart conditions, and more. Currently, one in sixteen children is expected to be born with a significant birth abnormality. In the United States, the rate grew by around 10.7% annually from 2005 to 2022, rising from 1% to 2.9% of all births. This trend is troubling, especially in a country where every state is already below the replacement level.
This is not to suggest that those born with severe birth defects do not deserve to live. However, these individuals are more likely to pass away during infancy. The additional surgeries required often lead to even higher medical costs, even for those with comprehensive insurance. These are just the immediate challenges that need to be addressed.
7. Pollution's Impact on Fertility
Numerous studies are showing that women living in areas with higher levels of pollution are experiencing a significant drop in fertility, despite their best efforts to conceive. A survey of 18,000 couples in China revealed that those residing in densely populated urban areas were 20% less likely to conceive within the first year of trying.
In the United States, a 2019 study conducted by the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Clinic analyzed 632 women and found that exposure to high levels of fine particulate matter in urban environments led to earlier egg loss and infertility. Additionally, a study published in the journal *Human Reproduction* in 2024 discovered that IVF success rates were 38% lower in neighborhoods with higher pollution levels.
Pollution also severely affects male fertility. Hagai Levine of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem reported in 2022 that a sperm count below approximately 40 million per milliliter marks the threshold at which male fertility declines. Levine's research revealed that between 1973 and 2018, global average sperm counts dropped from 104 million to 49 million per milliliter.
Since 2000, sperm counts have been declining at an average annual rate of 2.6%. A 2022 study published in *Nature* found that 7% of men have been infertile their entire lives. This drop in sperm count signals a critical point, where many communities may soon see a significant decline in fertility.
6. Miscarriage Rates
Miscarriages are tragic yet very common, with approximately 20% of pregnancies resulting in either a miscarriage or a stillbirth (stillbirth refers to pregnancies that terminate after 20 weeks, while miscarriages happen earlier). One might expect that modern medical advancements and stress-relief methods would have reduced this occurrence, but recent data suggests otherwise. A 2018 study published in the *New England Journal of Medicine* showed that miscarriage rates have been increasing by 1% annually. Stillbirth rates, on the other hand, remain around 1 in 160.
Miscarriages and stillbirths can cause immense emotional distress for many prospective parents. A 2015 study in *Obstetrics and Gynecology* found that 50% of those who experienced one of these losses felt guilt, while a quarter of them felt shame. The emotional toll is a significant risk that many people must face when deciding to pursue parenthood.
5. The Rise of Antinatalism and the Childfree Movement
The idea that not having children is morally superior to having them faces a built-in, self-defeating challenge in achieving widespread adoption. Its supporters are less likely to have children themselves to carry on their beliefs, are less likely to accumulate the wealth needed for power and influence, and are less likely to feel a strong drive to evangelize their views. Despite these challenges, the antinatalist movement has been gaining traction in recent years.
The trend of women choosing a child-free lifestyle remains strong. In 2006, there were nine million women of childbearing age in the U.S. who had no children. By 2022, that figure had surged to 21.9 million. During this period, the U.S. population grew by only 40 million, from 298 million to 338 million.
Even if many of these women later decide to have children, it's important to note that the risks associated with pregnancy increase significantly after the age of 30. By 40, the chances of a miscarriage or stillbirth rise by 40-50%. The biological clock is ticking faster than many realize.
4. The Decline of Birth Options
With the potential for a baby bust looming, and many wealthy futurists expressing concern, one might expect a push for the widespread availability of birth centers to reduce costs by increasing the number of providers. However, the American approach has been the opposite. Between 2011 and 2023, 217 hospitals closed their birth centers.
Rather than slowing down, this trend accelerated, with 26 closures occurring by the time of writing in 2024. While gynecological and perinatal services remain available at these hospitals, women in rural areas are often forced to travel out of state for deliveries or turn to midwives, whether they want to or not.
The underlying issue here is tied to insurance providers. Over 40% of birth-related insurance coverage is provided through Medicaid, which is especially prevalent in rural areas. Medicaid reimburses hospitals at rates significantly lower than private or employer-based insurance, often less than half. This discrepancy is a key reason why many hospitals in rural areas, particularly in states with less generous Medicaid coverage, are choosing to close their maternity services.
3. The Decline of Romantic Interest
In recent years, individuals who struggle to form romantic or sexual relationships have faced stigmatization, partly due to violent actions by 'incels' like Tres Genco and Alek Minassian. This social context has made it more difficult for many to openly address a stark reality: a growing number of young people aren't just avoiding serious relationships intended for raising children, they're not even pursuing romantic relationships at all.
A 2024 Pew Research poll revealed that only 40% of single people are interested in even casual relationships, let alone something more serious and committed. Among 18-29 year olds, 37% showed no interest in relationships or dating whatsoever. For those who might expect this to be a passing phase, the same poll found that 39% of individuals aged 30-49 also expressed disinterest in relationships.
Women were found to be significantly more likely to lack interest in relationships (70% of women over 40 compared to 42% of men). This trend is expected to continue growing, as 44% of the most recent adult generation reportedly went through their teenage years without experiencing a relationship. This large portion of the population may be less prepared to engage in relationships and thus contribute to improving the birth rate.
2. Climate Change
Whether climate change is driven by human activity or is part of natural cycles outside of our control, the alarming frequency and severity of climate-related disasters continue to rise. These events are having a profound impact on the confidence many potential parents have about the future. According to a Pew Research poll from July 2024, a quarter of people of childbearing age who did not plan to have children cited concerns about the environment as their main reason.
Even if environmental worries were alleviated, the reality remains that, as of 2023, the U.S. experiences $1 billion in damage every three weeks due to climate disasters. To put this into perspective, in 2022, natural disasters displaced 32 million people, marking a 41% increase from 2008. If these extreme environmental events persist, it's likely to fuel the growing support for the antinatalist movement.
1. The Appeal of Having One Child
Undoubtedly, millions of women have managed to overcome these challenges and have children. Many of them, after going through the experience of childbirth, opt to have only one child. This decision is entirely reasonable. A 2022 study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology analyzed 188 studies and found that couples tend to experience the highest satisfaction when they have a single child, achieving the biological goal of reproduction without excessive time pressure or other stresses.
The core issue lies in the fact that the replacement level birth rate stands at 2.1. Over the years, the proportion of women who only have one child during their childbearing years has been rising, doubling from 11% in 1976 to 22% in 2015. China's One-Child Policy, which was in effect from 1979 to 2015, serves as a cautionary tale about how a society with too many families having just one child could lead to significant instability, even though it may be appealing to individual families.
