10 Scientifically Proven Weather Myths

Key Points

Early cultures were among the first to explore weather forecasting, and it’s easy to understand why. The weather influenced everything from crop yields to the success of military campaigns. It took centuries for weather predictions to evolve from mystical practices to scientific studies, but farmers, sailors, and soldiers weren’t willing to wait. Without modern tools, observatories, or instant communication, they relied on inherited sayings and ancient wisdom to predict the weather.

In the Western world, these early guidelines evolved into natural philosophy, marked by Aristotle’s extensive yet imperfect work, "Meteorologica." Much later, scientific theories based on accumulated observations would give rise to modern meteorology.

Meanwhile, superstitions still influenced human actions in unexpected ways. Some historians and geographers suggest that the mistaken belief that "rain follows the plow"—meaning cultivated land draws more rain—may have fueled, or at least supported, the westward expansion of America [source: Ferrill].

Whether proven, debunked, or still under debate, weather myths are tough to dispel. We’ve put together a list of 10 that we’re certain stand the test of time. Some are as comforting as a summer breeze, while others might surprise you like a sudden thunderstorm.

10: Red Sky in Morning, Sailors Take Warning; Red Sky at Night, Sailors Delight

In poetic terms, fortunes fall with the sunset, and hopes rise like the sun. But sailors and shepherds alike will tell you that a red sunrise signals one thing: stormy weather.

The reddish hues that color the horizon at dawn and dusk are caused by the scattering of sunlight through small particles in dry, dusty air. At sunset, this indicates a zone of dry, high pressure between you and the sun. In the mid-latitudes, where weather moves predominantly from west to east, this suggests a clear day ahead. But as in life, high and low pressures are often closely linked. So, if red skies appear near sunrise, it means the calm high-pressure area has already passed, and a stormy low-pressure system may soon follow [source: Library of Congress].

This saying holds true in the middle latitudes, which include most of North America, Europe, and Asia, along with South Africa and the southern parts of South America and Australia. In the poles and tropics, where weather patterns move in the opposite direction, sailors (and shepherds) might want to heed the opposite advice [source: Pann].

9: Feeling Bad Weather in Your Bones

The expression "under the weather" dates back to Hippocrates, one of the pioneers of Western medicine, who noted that certain ailments seemed to worsen under specific weather conditions. Even today, people claim to feel the onset of a storm or a cold snap in their arthritis, sinuses, headaches, or teeth. But does grandma's "rheumatiz" really serve as a reliable weather predictor, or is this just another example of unverified anecdotal evidence?

While modern scientists haven't found definitive evidence of a broad connection between pain and weather, some studies have revealed statistically significant links in certain cases [source: Shah]. For instance, a 2007 study in the American Journal of Medicine involving 200 subjects with knee osteoarthritis found a relationship between barometric pressure and pain levels [source: McAlindon et al.].

It makes sense that barometric pressure could turn rain into pain. Your bodily fluids maintain a balance with the surrounding air pressure, so when the barometer drops -- as it does before a storm -- your tissues may swell in response, irritating nerve endings and causing extra discomfort [source: Shah].

8: Using Crickets as Thermometers

Crickets have an extensive repertoire of sounds, each one serving a distinct purpose, from attracting mates to signaling danger [source: Library of Congress]. But did you know their chirping is also linked directly to the air temperature?

Crickets chirp faster in warmer weather and slower as the air grows colder. For certain species, such as Oecanthus fultoni, also known as the "thermometer cricket," there is a clear and direct relationship between chirp rate and temperature (within a range of 18 to 32°C, or 64 to 90°F). Other species show a less obvious link, but the general principle holds true [source: Doherty].

In fact, research shows that you can estimate the air temperature by counting cricket chirps and applying a simple formula. A. E. Dolbear developed the formula in an 1897 edition of The American Naturalist: T = (50 + N – 40) / 4, where T is the temperature in Fahrenheit and N is the chirp rate per minute [source: Dolbear]. According to "The Farmer's Almanac," counting the number of chirps over 14 seconds and adding 40 gives the temperature in Fahrenheit. For Celsius, count chirps in 25 seconds, divide by 3, and add 4 [source: Farmer's Almanac].

So, the next time you’re kept up by cricket noises, skip counting sheep – instead, try calculating the temperature.

7: Cows Lying Down Means Wet Weather Is on the Way

Animal behavior has long been used as a predictor of weather, with many superstitions surrounding cows. For example, it's believed that a cow that eats its own hair will forget its old home, or that a cow with a portion of its tail cut off will never escape [source: Farmer's Almanac].

Cows have been linked to weather prediction for centuries. One superstition claims that cows lie down when rain is imminent. While it's true that cows sit for various reasons, such as chewing cud, dismissing this idea as ridiculous might be premature. The link between cows crouching and wet weather could be tied to body heat.

Interestingly, cows tend to stand more often when their body temperature rises. Thus, a standing Guernsey might indicate hotter weather, while a seated Shorthorn could suggest cooler weather or an impending storm. However, this belief should be taken with a grain of salt, as it may simply be an overblown coincidence [sources: Allen et al.; Farmer's Almanac].

6: A Lunar Halo Means Rain

As is often said, "ring around the moon, rain real soon," or "when a halo surrounds the moon or sun, expect rain to follow shortly." This catchy rhyme suggests the truth of the phenomenon.

These sayings hold a bit of truth. The halos seen around the moon or sun come from wispy clouds of ice crystals high in the sky. These crystals bend the light of the moon or sun, creating a glowing ring. On sunny days, this effect can sometimes create bright spots, known as parhelia or "sun dogs," that resemble additional suns [source: UIUC].

The ice crystals form in cirrostratus clouds, which stretch across the sky and form during atmospheric convergence. In this process, a low-pressure zone at ground level draws air from surrounding areas. As the air rises, it cools and condenses into water vapor. If it rises further into colder air, it crystallizes into ice [source: UIUC].

Cirrus clouds often precede weather fronts, where temperature differences push warm air upward, causing moisture to condense and form clouds. This is why they're commonly associated with rainy weather [source: Pidwirny].

5: Clear Moon, Frost Soon

People in the north-central U.S. can attest that clear winter days offer a bittersweet experience. On one side, you get a break from the unrelenting gloom of endless overcast days, when the thought of a wolf devouring the sun from Norse mythology seems almost plausible. On the other hand, these clear days and nights often bring in cold weather, courtesy of dry, continental high-pressure systems. These systems are often labeled with terms like 'cold,' 'frigid,' or 'arctic' because a cloudless night feels like a chilly evening without the comfort of blankets.

Throughout the day, Earth's surface absorbs the sun's shortwave radiation and transforms it into heat. When night falls and the sun sets, the planet starts releasing this heat at different rates, depending on the surface materials. Without clouds to retain the heat, the surface and atmosphere cool progressively due to radiative heat loss.

Thus, it's true: "Cold is the night when the stars shine bright," and clear nights often come with frost advisories.

4: March Comes in Like a Lion and Goes Out Like a Lamb

Whether you consider the saying to be accurate (but irrelevant), just a myth, or a bit of both, really depends on how you interpret its origins.

In the Northern Hemisphere, March signifies the transition from winter to spring, so it's logical to expect that it starts off cold and stormy, only to ease into warmer, calmer weather by the end. If that doesn't seem particularly enlightening, another explanation from proponents of the saying looks to the stars: March begins with the constellation Leo (the Lion) rising on the eastern horizon at sunset, and by the end of the month, Aries (the Ram) sets on the western horizon. For some, this celestial dance is what the saying refers to.

Both interpretations make the saying technically correct, though not very useful, which may be why some versions of the phrase include a few extra words: "If March Comes in Like a Lion, It Will Go Out Like a Lamb." In true weather superstition fashion, this version makes a prediction: harsh weather at the start of the month is followed by pleasant conditions as it ends.

No matter how the saying is phrased, we must humbly acknowledge that there is no real link between bad weather in early March and pleasant conditions later on [source: Hambling]. But please, don't come after us for pointing that out.

3: Pine Cones Can Predict the Weather

There are two major types of weather-related superstitions involving plants and animals: those suggesting that these living things 'know' what the future holds for the season (often winter), and those based on how plants and animals react to shifting environmental conditions. The first category is generally inaccurate — plants and animals respond to their current or past environment, not the future — but the second category holds more promise.

For example, some people claim that an abundance of pine cones in the fall signals a harsh winter ahead. However, this is a myth: Pine trees actually take up to three years to fully mature cones, and they vary their cone production to help ward off predators [source: WBZ]. But you can still use pine cones as weather indicators by observing whether they open or close.

Pine cones are the reproductive organs of pine trees. Male cones release pollen, which fertilizes the female cones, resulting in seed production. In dry conditions, the outer parts of the cone scales dry faster than the inner parts, causing the cones to open. This is beneficial for the tree, as dry, calm weather is optimal for seed dispersal. In contrast, wet conditions cause the scales to absorb moisture and close, protecting the seeds until more favorable conditions arise [source: Burns].

2: Mackerel Sky and Mare's Tails Make Lofty Ships Carry Low Sails

Here's a fish tale that actually holds water -- as long as you keep the details in check.

A mackerel sky, referred to as sheep clouds in Germany and France (German: schaefchenwolken; French: nuages moutonneux), is a vast expanse of clouds that resembles a series of waves or fish scales, with patches of blue sky between the clouds. These clouds, made up of cirrocumulus or altocumulus types, indicate the presence of moisture high in the sky (around 18,000-30,000 feet, or 6,000-10,000 meters) in a cold atmosphere. The blue areas indicate that the clouds are breaking up due to instability. Mare's tails, which are long, threadlike cirrus clouds, are often stretched by strong winds at high altitudes. Both types of clouds are signs of an approaching storm, typically within 6-8 hours [source: Weather Online].

Assuming your mackerel sky is made of ice clouds, it could also be that you're dealing with altocumulus clouds, which are larger and darker in appearance. In this case, you're likely looking at a lower-level cloud version made up of water droplets. While this might suggest favorable weather in the short term, stay alert as these clouds could evolve into something more ominous, such as a cold front and thunderstorms approaching soon [source: Weather Online].

1: Counting Lightning Flashes and Thunderclaps Can Tell You a Storm's Distance

In this compilation, we corrected some common misconceptions about thunder and lightning. For example, the idea that lightning can't strike twice is doubly false. One-third of the time, a single bolt strikes multiple times in succession [source: NASA]. Additionally, locations like skyscrapers can be hit by lightning repeatedly each year. Some individuals have been struck numerous times, such as Ranger Roy Sullivan, who was struck seven times in Shenandoah National Park [source: Dunkel]. Ouch.

The counting method works because it is grounded in physics: Light moves faster than sound, and the speed of sound in the air is a constant. After seeing lightning, count the seconds before hearing thunder. Every five seconds equals one mile between you and the storm. The math checks out: At sea level and around 68 F (20 C), sound travels at about 1,129 feet per second (344 meters per second). So, for every five seconds between lightning and thunder, the sound covers 5,645 feet (1,720 meters), or approximately one mile. You can use this technique to figure out if the storm is approaching or moving away [source: NOAA].