Buzz
Each year, new hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and other natural calamities impact the globe. While some regions experience these disasters more frequently than others, extreme weather events are a universal fear. Scientists who specialize in natural disasters have long been forecasting significant storms and occurrences. Within the 21st century, numerous experts have predicted major disasters to occur both in the near and distant future. Below are 10 catastrophic events that, based on scientific projections, could occur at any time. These entries are arranged from least to most destructive.
10. Wildfires United States, 2015–2050
Researchers from the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) project that by 2050, wildfire seasons in the US will stretch three weeks longer, be twice as smoky, and burn an increasing portion of the West each year. Meanwhile, data from the US Geological Survey and the Forest Service indicate that since 1999, the area burned by wildfires in the US has tripled, from 2.2 million acres to 6.4 million acres annually, signaling that a much larger area of the US could be ravaged by fire in the near future.
What has caused the sharp rise in wildfire risk across the US? According to SEAS, the answer lies in the gradual changes in the climate, which have increased the Earth’s temperature and fostered conditions conducive to more intense and widespread wildfires. Dr. Loretta J. Mickley, a senior research fellow in atmospheric chemistry at SEAS, stated that temperature will be the most significant factor in determining the occurrence of future fires. The hotter the climate, the greater the likelihood of wildfires. Ironically, the issue has worsened due to campaigns like ‘Smokey the Bear’ and efforts by Park and Forest Services to prevent all forest fires, which have interfered with the natural fire cycle that helps clear the underbrush in forests. With 30,000 to 50,000 wildfires expected annually, the US may soon face its own version of Hell on Earth.
9. Baroarbunga Volcanic Eruption Iceland, 2014
This prediction materialized just a few weeks after it was made.
In August 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office raised the risk level for a potential eruption of Baroarbunga, a volcano located in Iceland. This heightened risk was attributed to the occurrence of hundreds of earthquakes around the site over the course of several days, a typical precursor to a volcanic eruption. Scientists began making predictions about what might happen if Baroarbunga erupted. Some experts suggested that the ice surrounding the volcano would melt, leading to flooding. Others believed the eruption could trigger further eruptions along 100-meter-long (328 ft.) fissures in southwest Iceland, potentially activating the Torfajokull volcano, which could destroy several key rivers that provide hydroelectric power to Iceland.
On August 23, 2014, Baroarbunga began erupting beneath the Dyngjujokull glacier. Over the following week, thousands of earthquakes shook the region near the volcano. By August 31, the Holuhraun fissure erupted. This fissure continued erupting for six months, finally concluding on February 28, 2015. During this period, the fissure released enough lava every five minutes to fill an American football stadium. In total, the eruption produced 1.5 cubic kilometers (0.4 mi) of lava and created a 86-square-kilometer (33 mi) lava field, making the Baroarbunga eruption of 2014 the largest eruption in Iceland since the eruption of the Laki fissure in 1783.
8. Megathrust Earthquake Chile, 2015–2065
The Chilean earthquake of April 2014 opened fissures that could potentially lead to a magnitude 8.5 or stronger earthquake in Chile. On April 1, 2014, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake struck 97 kilometers (60 mi.) off the northwest coast of Chile near the city of Iquique, causing landslides and a tsunami to hit the coast. This event created the possibility of an even more powerful earthquake for Chile in the near future, due to the location of the earthquake.
The Iquique earthquake originated from a subduction zone, where the Nazca Plate is being forced underneath the South American Plate. This subduction zone is part of the ‘Ring of Fire,’ an arc in the Pacific that holds 75 percent of the world’s active volcanoes and is responsible for much of the world’s seismic activity. As one tectonic plate moves beneath another, the resulting pressure can create severe stress along fault lines, and any release of that tension leads to seismic events, such as earthquakes. The April 2014 earthquake was a ‘megathrust’ earthquake, a major quake caused by the sudden release of pressure from a subduction zone. It relieved only 33 percent of the tension along the fault, leaving the remainder to be released in the near future.
7. Twin Earthquake Japan, 2017
Dr. Masaaki Kimura, a seismologist and emeritus professor of submarine geology at the University of the Ryukyus, predicts that a 9.0 magnitude earthquake, similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, will strike Japan in 2017. On March 11, 2011, the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake occurred 372 kilometers (231 mi.) off the northeast coast of Tokyo, creating a tsunami with 9-meter (30 ft.) waves that hit Japan. Dr. Kimura had predicted the Tohoku earthquake four years prior to its occurrence, but his prediction and supporting evidence were dismissed by the Pacific Science Congress.
His predictions are based on his theory of ‘earthquake eyes,’ areas where small earthquakes frequently occur, but are often overlooked. Dr. Kimura believes these earthquake eyes are the best indicators of where and when major earthquakes are likely to happen. Earthquake eyes are part of his four-step short-term earthquake prediction method known as the ‘Kimura method.’ This method is the only active early warning system for earthquakes, though it has not been widely tested or accepted by the scientific community. Currently, earthquake prediction is limited to offering only seconds of warning.
Kimura predicts that the upcoming earthquake will originate in the Izu Islands and will reach a magnitude of 9.0. Much like the Tohoku earthquake, this event will trigger a tsunami that will impact Japan in a similar manner.
6. Mt. Fuji Eruption Japan, 2015–2053
Following the shift of Japan’s landmass during the Tohoku earthquake, 20 out of Japan’s 110 active volcanoes showed signs of increased seismic activity, prompting experts to speculate that one could erupt at any moment. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) closely monitors seismic activity and volcanoes across Japan. Of the 110 volcanoes, 47 are classified as ‘active,’ having erupted within the past 10,000 years or emitting gases. Projections indicate that Japan experiences a major volcanic eruption every 38 years, with 15 ‘volcanic events’ occurring annually.
Among these 47 active volcanoes is Mt. Fuji, Japan's highest peak at 3,773 meters (12,380 feet). In July 2014, a joint French and Japanese research team published a report indicating that Mt. Fuji is one of the volcanoes most likely to erupt, raising concerns among Japanese citizens. Located just 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Tokyo, an eruption of Mt. Fuji could lead to the evacuation of 750,000 people from the city. Experts predict that Tokyo would likely be covered in ash in the event of an eruption.
5. Earthquake-Tsunami Split Oregon, 2015-2065
In a collaborative effort involving over 150 volunteer experts, the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission forecasts that an earthquake with a magnitude between 8.0 and 9.0, followed by a tsunami, will strike off the coast of Oregon within the next 50 years. The major uncertainties are: when will this event happen, and will Oregon be adequately prepared for it?
The potential source of this devastating earthquake-tsunami combination is the Cascadia subduction zone, a 1,287-kilometer (800 mi.) fault line located 97 kilometers (60 mi.) off Oregon’s coast. Created by the interaction between the Juan de Fuca and North American tectonic plates, this subduction zone is considered the ‘quietest subduction zone in the world,’ yet is believed to be hiding one of the most significant seismic events of this century. Predicted since 2010, the Commission now insists that it is an inevitable occurrence. This catastrophic earthquake and tsunami are expected to cause the deaths of over 10,000 people, potentially splitting portions of the West Coast and inflicting $32 billion in damages to the United States.
4. East Coast Submersion US, 2050–2100
Hurricane Sandy, which struck in October 2012, submerged several cities, and due to its intensity, NASA deemed it a rare storm that might only happen once every 700 years. However, current sea level trends along the East Coast suggest that by 2050, several major cities could face submersion.
In a 2012 study, emeritus professor John Boon from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science noted that significant sea level changes began along the East Coast, stretching from Key West, Florida to Newfoundland, Canada, around 1987. His research shows that the sea level is rising at a rate of 0.3 millimeters per year. This aligns with findings from a US Geological Survey study, which highlights that the East Coast’s sea level rise is occurring three to four times faster than the global average.
Coastal areas in the northeastern United States are increasingly vulnerable, especially in high-value urban regions like New York City, which may be submerged by 2050. Projections suggest the city's sea level could rise by 79 centimeters (31 inches) by that time, potentially flooding 25 percent of the city. Around 800,000 residents live within the predicted flood zone, and by 2050, 97 percent of New York City's power plants will also be located there. This led former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to propose a $20 billion flood protection system in 2013, although it was never implemented.
3. Major Solar Storm 2015-2025
One of the most significant natural disasters that could potentially strike Earth in the near future is not from our planet but rather from the Sun itself.
The Sun undergoes an 'activity cycle,' during which its level of activity, including solar flares and sunspots, fluctuates depending on its position in the cycle. The most recent notable solar activity took place in July 2012, when a coronal mass ejection (CME) passed through Earth’s orbit and impacted the STEREO-A space station. A CME is a massive release of magnetized plasma, often accompanied by a solar flare and high levels of ultraviolet radiation, as well as energetic particles that damage the sensitive components of satellites. The 2012 CME struck the space station but narrowly missed Earth by about a week.
Pete Riley, a scientist from Predictive Science, Inc., has analyzed records of solar storms from the past five decades and concluded that there’s a 12 percent chance of a major solar storm striking Earth within the next decade. If such a storm were to happen, it could disrupt radio, GPS, and satellite communications, affecting millions of electronics globally. The energetic particles from the storm could also cause power surges, potentially leading to widespread blackouts like the one in Quebec in 1989. The estimated economic damage in the first year could be between $1 and $2 trillion, and full recovery could take anywhere from 4 to 10 years, according to the National Research Council.
Despite these alarming forecasts, a catastrophic solar storm may not happen anytime soon. Even if one were to occur, experts like Robert Rutledge from the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center suggest that the predictions being made are based on 'worst-case scenarios' and are primarily a precautionary warning. Nonetheless, major power companies and emergency services worldwide are taking proactive measures, investing heavily in defense strategies to mitigate the impact of solar activity.
2. The 'Big One' California, 2015-2045
The US Geological Survey has raised the likelihood of a major earthquake, with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater, striking California in the coming decades. The earthquake known as the 'Big One' has long been a looming concern for Californians. According to the USGS’s Third Uniform California Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), there is currently a 7 percent chance of such a quake occurring within the next 30 years. In addition, the probability of a smaller earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.5 to 7.0, has increased by 30 percent.
If the Big One strikes, it is expected to originate from the San Andreas Fault, which stretches across southern California, inland from Los Angeles. However, there is some debate about the exact fault that will be the epicenter. Some reports suggest that the Hayward Fault near the Bay Area and San Francisco could be the site of the disaster.
Regardless of the fault line, experts predict that the earthquake will wreak havoc across all of California and the surrounding West Coast. To prepare for such an event, 300 scientists collaborated to create a 'realistic crisis scenario' based on historical data and computer simulations. The predictions show that shock waves from the earthquake would travel at a speed of 11,600 kilometers per hour (7,200 mph), causing massive destruction to key infrastructure, such as major freeways and buildings. The biggest concern, however, remains the potential for fires, as dry brush could easily turn small sparks into large, uncontrollable blazes.
The White House has allocated $5 million to a collaborative team from Caltech, UC Berkeley, and the University of Washington to advance the Earthquake Early Warning system, which is designed to provide up to one minute of warning before an earthquake strikes. Currently, the system can only issue alerts about 10 seconds before the earthquake begins.
1. Largest Tsunami Ever Caribbean, Unknown
Dr. Simon Day from University College London and Dr. Steven Ward from the University of California, Santa Cruz, foresee that the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Islands could erupt, potentially creating the largest tsunami ever recorded. In their joint 2001 paper, they speculated that a rupture in the volcano’s structure during its previous eruption made the left flank particularly unstable.
Should the Cumbre Vieja volcano erupt again, its left side would collapse in a landslide, generating a tsunami of unprecedented size. Their calculations suggest that the wave would travel at speeds of 800 kilometers per hour (500 mph), reach heights of 100 meters (330 ft.) upon hitting land, and reach Florida within nine hours. Dr. Day and Dr. Ward predict the tsunami would also impact far-reaching areas like England, Florida, and the Caribbean.
Keep in mind that this is a worst-case scenario. Should a landslide triggered by an eruption occur on Cumbre Vieja, it's unlikely that the entire landmass would collapse into the sea all at once. Instead, a more gradual landslide would not generate a record-breaking tsunami. Still, if you’re considering purchasing beachside property in the South, it might be wise to think twice.
