Buzz
Over the past few years, Erik Sass has been chronicling the events leading up to World War I precisely a century after they occurred. This article revisits the journey that brought us to that pivotal moment in history.
In mid-June 1914, Europeans were eagerly anticipating a splendid summer. The elite prepared for their seasonal retreats, with servants packing belongings and securing estates, while the general populace dreamed of beach vacations, mountain hikes, and leisurely afternoons at local pubs or cafes. Yet, beneath the surface, on June 16, 1914, German Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg penned a letter to Prince Lichnowsky, the German ambassador to Britain, cautioning that 'even a minor clash between Russia and Austria-Hungary could ignite the flames of war.' His foresight proved accurate within weeks. But was the Great War truly unavoidable?
Ultimately, the answer hinges on philosophical debates such as the existence of free will. However, here are several reasons why World War I erupted—and a few factors that might have averted it.
1. The Rise of Nationalism
Outline of History
During the medieval era, Christianity served as a unifying force for Europeans, transcending linguistic and cultural differences. However, the Reformation fragmented the Catholic Church, and the Enlightenment weakened religion's influence on society. Nationalism arose to fill this spiritual gap, offering a sense of community rooted in shared language and ethnicity. By the 19th century, Europeans widely believed that each nation possessed a unique identity and occupied sacred, unassailable land. Germany's annexation of Alsace-Lorraine in 1871 deeply wounded French national pride, sparking a desire for revenge, or 'revanchism.' Simultaneously, nationalism posed a significant threat to Austria-Hungary, a multi-ethnic empire where numerous nationalities sought independence.
2. The Role of Racism and Social Darwinism
Wikimedia Commons
Nationalism, though inherently irrational, found justification through racism and Social Darwinism. Racism, emerging from the Enlightenment, tied cultural distinctions to physical traits, suggesting inherent biological differences such as intelligence. In the 19th century, Social Darwinism lent a pseudo-scientific veneer to racism, framing human races as engaged in a 'struggle for survival.' Central to this was the intense rivalry between the Slavs and Germans.
3. The Age of Imperialism
Wikimedia Commons
Advancements in technology during the Renaissance and Enlightenment provided Europeans with a significant edge over less developed societies, facilitating global conquest and colonization. By the 19th century, European powers were fiercely competing to build vast empires. However, nations like Britain, France, and Russia had already established dominance, leaving latecomers such as Germany striving for their own 'place in the sun,' which further fueled tensions.
4. The Rise of Germany
Although Germany trailed in colonial acquisitions, its rapid domestic growth alarmed France and Britain. Between 1870 and 1910, Germany's population surged by 58 percent to 65 million, while France's grew only 11 percent to 40 million. From 1890 to 1913, German steel production skyrocketed nine-fold to 18.9 million tons—surpassing the combined output of Britain (7.7 million) and France (4.6 million). Germany also boasted Europe's finest rail network, fostering greater mobility and economic expansion. Understandably, Germans believed they deserved a larger role on the global stage, but their approach was deeply flawed.
5. The Naval Arms Race
Wikimedia Commons
Kaiser Wilhelm II’s passion project was the German Imperial Navy, developed alongside Grand Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz, a naval officer with exceptional political acumen. However, their naval obsession strained relations with Britain, an island nation that could not afford to lose maritime dominance. In the early 20th century, Britain countered by constructing more ships and forming an informal alliance with its historic rival, France—known as the entente cordiale (friendly understanding).
6. Germany's Fear of Encirclement
uchicago.edu
Despite Germany’s own missteps driving Britain and France closer, the entente cordiale (alongside the Franco-Russian Alliance of 1892) fueled German anxiety about being encircled. This fear heightened Germany’s aggression, which, in a self-fulfilling cycle, only strengthened the bond between Britain, France, and Russia, solidifying the 'Triple Entente.'
7. The Land Arms Race
Germany’s fear of encirclement sparked a massive arms race on land, with Germany and Austria-Hungary facing off against France, Russia, and Britain (later joined by Italy). Between 1910 and 1913, military spending among Europe’s Great Powers surged from $1.67 billion to $2.15 billion annually in today’s U.S. dollars. With further increases looming, both sides began to question: should they strike now before their adversaries grew even more powerful?
8. The Expansion of Russia
Wikimedia Commons
Just as Germany’s economic rise alarmed Britain and France, Russia’s rapid growth soon struck fear into Germany and Austria-Hungary. Between 1900 and 1913, industrialization propelled Russia’s gross national product up by 55 percent to $388 billion in today’s U.S. dollars. During the same period, its population surged by 26 percent to 168 million—exceeding the combined populations of Germany and Austria-Hungary. In July 1914, Kurt Riezler, a German philosopher and close confidant of Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg, somberly noted, 'The future belongs to Russia…'
9. The Decline of the Ottoman Empire
As Germany and Russia grew stronger, the Ottoman Empire teetered on collapse, destabilizing the Balkans and the Middle East. During the First Balkan War (1912-1913), the Balkan League—comprising Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, and Montenegro—seized most of the empire’s remaining European territories. Serbia’s annexation of Albania set it on a collision course with Austria-Hungary, which opposed Serbia gaining sea access. Meanwhile, Russia planned to seize Armenia, Britain and France eyed Syria and Iraq, and Germany feared being sidelined once more.
10. The Role of Secret Treaties
Wikimedia Commons
Europe’s intricate web of alliances was further complicated by the secrecy surrounding many agreements, leaving key players in the dark. For instance, had Britain publicly disclosed its commitments to France, it might have discouraged Germany from pursuing war. Similarly, Italy had a covert non-aggression treaty with France, unknown even to its highest-ranking generals. The mere suspicion of agreements, like the feared Anglo-Russian Naval Convention, fueled German paranoia about encirclement, despite no such pact ever being finalized.
11. The Absence of International Law
vredespaleis.nl
Despite the emergence of a global economy in the 19th century, there was no effective system of international law to prevent states from resorting to violence. Institutions like the Peace Palace (pictured above) were established to mediate international disputes, but without enforcement power, they were largely ineffective. Sadly, not much has changed since then.
12. Internal Strife
morgenpost.de
World War I wasn’t solely driven by international disputes; internal conflicts also played a significant role. In Germany, the conservative ruling class feared the rising influence of socialist groups opposed to militarism (pictured above) and sought to exploit foreign policy to foster nationalism and divert attention from domestic issues. In Russia, the Tsarist regime promoted Pan-Slavism to bolster its legitimacy and deflect criticism over its failure to implement democratic reforms.
13. The Point of No Return
During the 19th century, Europe’s Great Powers routinely developed detailed war plans to avoid being caught off guard and to gain an edge over adversaries. These plans emphasized logistics, particularly the rapid deployment of armies via railroads. This required intricate timetables coordinating thousands of trains, as exemplified by Germany’s Schlieffen Plan (above). The complexity of these plans made them inflexible, leaving no room for adjustments or improvisation. Once mobilization started, adversaries were compelled to respond, creating an irreversible cycle of escalation.
14. Embracing the Inevitable
Wikimedia Commons
This idea might seem unconventional, but it’s worth considering. After World War I, Sigmund Freud proposed the concept of a 'death drive,' an innate human impulse toward self-destruction and aggression. While other drives, like the pursuit of pleasure, may counterbalance it, the death drive remains a subconscious force influencing behavior. Destruction is often tied to creation; many young people at the time viewed the war as a chance to dismantle Europe’s 'outdated' and 'stagnant' society, hoping to build a brighter future (though, as history shows, this hope was misplaced).
Four Factors That Might Have Prevented WWI (Possibly)
1. No One Truly Desired It
The greatest irony of World War I was that none of the major leaders truly desired the conflict (and, death wish aside, neither did most ordinary citizens). Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II took pride in his role as a peacekeeper and made desperate last-minute efforts to prevent the war. Similarly, Austria-Hungary’s Emperor Franz Josef took extraordinary steps to maintain peace, and Russia’s Tsar Nicholas II was renowned for his pacifist tendencies. While these efforts alone couldn’t stop the war, they highlight that the desire for peace existed, if only circumstances had permitted it.
2. Clearer Guidance
One of Germany’s most reckless actions in July 1914 was issuing Austria-Hungary a 'blank check,' pledging unconditional support for any actions Vienna took against Serbia. Germany could have served its own interests—and everyone else’s—by being more precise, such as specifying the timing, location, and extent of Austria-Hungary’s response to Serbia, how to test Russia’s resolve, and what contingency plans to follow if faced with resistance from Russia, France, and Britain. Instead, Germany essentially said, 'Do as you please!'—a surprisingly un-German approach.
3. Timely Warnings
In July 1914, Germany and Austria-Hungary clashed with Russia and France over Serbia, while Britain and Italy largely stayed on the sidelines. Had Britain’s Foreign Secretary Edward Grey and Italy’s Foreign Minister San Giuliano intervened earlier and more decisively, warning that they would join the fight, it might have deterred Germany and Austria-Hungary from escalating. San Giuliano had already cautioned Austria-Hungary against attacking Serbia in 1913, and Grey could have made Germany aware of Britain’s pledge to defend France.
4. Alternate Scenarios
Gavrilo Princip might have failed. But he succeeded.
Explore the previous installment or all entries.
