Buzz
Throughout the course of history, humanity has continuously tried to predict what the future holds. As technology evolved, these predictions shifted from religious to scientific and technological matters. Sadly, many of these incorrect forecasts have been immortalized, offering future generations plenty to chuckle about. Below is a selection of the 30 most notable examples.
Predictions 1 – 10
1. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, founder, chairman, and president of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), the company behind large-scale business mainframe computers, arguing against the idea of personal computers in 1977.
2. “We will never develop a 32-bit operating system.” — Bill Gates
3. “Lee DeForest has publicly stated in various newspapers, under his signature, that transmitting the human voice across the Atlantic was possible in the near future. Based on these absurd and intentionally misleading claims, the deceived public was encouraged to invest in his company…” — A U.S. District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest for selling fraudulent stock through the mail for his Radio Telephone Company in 1913.
4. “There is virtually no possibility that communication satellites in space will be used to enhance telephone, telegraph, television, or radio services within the United States.” — T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, in 1961 (the first commercial communications satellite was launched in 1965).
5. “To launch a man in a multi-stage rocket, send him into the moon’s gravitational field where he can conduct scientific observations, possibly land alive, and return to Earth – that is a wild fantasy worthy of Jules Verne. I confidently assert that such a manned journey will never happen, no matter what future advancements take place.” — Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1926
6. “A rocket will never be able to break free from Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times, 1936.
7. “Flying machines heavier than air are impractical (sic) and insignificant, if not entirely impossible.” – Simon Newcomb; The Wright Brothers flew at Kittyhawk just 18 months later.
8. “Flying machines heavier than air are impossible.” — Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society, 1895.
9. “There will never be a plane larger than this one.” — A Boeing engineer, commenting after the first flight of the 247, a twin-engine plane that could carry ten passengers.
10. “Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners are likely to become a reality within the next 10 years.” — Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York Times in 1955.
Predictions 11 – 20
11. “This is the most foolish thing we've ever done. The bomb will never detonate, and I say this as an expert in explosives.” — Admiral William D. Leahy, Chief of Staff to the Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy during World War II, advising President Truman on the atomic bomb, 1945. Leahy acknowledged the mistake five years later in his memoirs.
12. “The energy generated by splitting the atom is a very poor type of energy. Anyone expecting a power source from this atomic transformation is simply fantasizing.” — Ernest Rutherford, shortly after splitting the atom for the first time.
13. “There is absolutely no indication that nuclear energy will ever be accessible. It would require the atom to be split at will.” — Albert Einstein, 1932.
14. “Cinema is nothing more than a passing trend. It’s pre-recorded drama. What audiences truly want is to see real people on the stage.” — Charlie Chaplin, actor, producer, director, and studio founder, 1916.
15. “The horse will remain, but the automobile is just a passing fancy – a trend.” — The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
16. “The Americans may need the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.
17. “This ‘telephone’ has too many flaws to be taken seriously as a communication tool. The device holds no inherent value for us.” — A memo at Western Union, 1878 (or 1876).
18. “The global market potential for photocopiers is at most 5000 units.” — IBM, to the future founders of Xerox, stating that the photocopier market was too small to justify production, 1959.
19. “I must admit that I cannot imagine any submarine doing anything except suffocating its crew and sinking at sea.” — HG Wells, British novelist, in 1901.
20. “X-rays will turn out to be a fraud.” — Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883.
Predictions 21 – 30
21. “The notion that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is almost treasonous.” — Comment by an aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Haig, during a tank demonstration, 1916.
22. “How, sir, would you make a ship sail against both wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I beg you, pardon me, I have no time to entertain such nonsense.” — Napoleon Bonaparte, when informed about Robert Fulton’s steamboat, 1800s.
23. “Experimenting with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will ever use it.” — Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1889 (Edison frequently mocked the arguments of his competitor, George Westinghouse, for AC power).
24. “Home Taping Is Destroying Music” — A 1980s campaign by the BPI, claiming that people recording music off the radio onto cassette tapes would ruin the music industry.
25. “Television won’t survive. It’s just a fleeting trend.” — Mary Somerville, pioneer of radio educational broadcasts, 1948.
26. “[Television] won’t retain any market share after the first six months. People will quickly grow tired of watching a wooden box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946.
27. “When the Paris Exhibition [of 1878] concludes, electric light will be gone with it, and no one will hear of it again.” — Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson
28. “Dear Mr. President: Our country’s canal system is under threat by a new mode of transport called ‘railroads’... As you may know, Mr. President, ‘railroad’ carriages are drawn at a tremendous speed of 15 miles per hour by ‘engines’ which, aside from risking the lives of passengers, disturb the countryside with their roaring and snorting, setting crops on fire, scaring the animals, and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended for people to travel at such dangerous speeds.” — Martin Van Buren, Governor of New York, 1830(?).
29. “Rail travel at high speed is impossible because passengers, unable to breathe, would suffocate.” — Dr Dionysys Larder (1793-1859), professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London.
30. “The wireless music box has no conceivable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to his call for investment in radio in 1921.
This article is licensed under the GFDL. It uses material from the Wikipedia article: Failed Predictions
