Buzz
Throughout history, there have been countless predictions about the end of the world. But few in modern times sparked as much fear and speculation as the Y2K crisis. As the 1990s came to an end, tech experts and alarmists alike were anxious about computers failing to understand the year 2000. With only two digits to represent the year, there were concerns that '00' could be mistaken for 1900. Could that glitch trigger society’s downfall?
Fortunately, the crisis wasn’t as catastrophic as feared: tech specialists made the necessary fixes, and the apocalypse was postponed. But that didn’t stop a variety of experts (both qualified and unqualified) from making some grim predictions about what might unfold on January 1, 2000.
1. Forecast: Prison gates will swing open, unleashing violent criminals into society.
A significant portion of Y2K concerns centered around the potential breakdown of financial institutions, leading to a loss of access to funds. But for the truly paranoid, the thought of prisons malfunctioning kept many awake at night. According to a 1998 WIRED article, the fear was that since prison doors are typically controlled by computer systems, a glitch could leave them wide open, setting violent criminals free.
As Dr. Michael Harden, an IT manager, told WIRED in 1998, 'You couldn't build a modern prison today without computers... it makes them very vulnerable [to Y2K].' He added, 'The more modern the prison, the more likely it is to rely on computer systems to manage security operations.'
An even stranger theory suggested that ordinary citizens, cut off from essential resources and the power grid, might seize the opportunity to attack nearby prisons and take advantage of their food and supplies.
Of course, none of this came to pass. As a precaution, prison systems like Colorado's stocked up on backup generators and even encouraged their staff to ring in the new year with non-alcoholic drinks in case things went sideways.
2. Prediction: Aircraft will plummet from the sky.
If a personal computer misinterpreted the year 2000 as 1900, it might cause games to crash or programs to glitch. However, in the worst-case scenario, a computer failure affecting an airplane at 30,000 feet could have disastrous consequences. A brief error in air traffic control or cockpit systems could lead to catastrophe. The question lingered: would Y2K cause planes to crash when the new millennium arrived?
Airlines were equally concerned. Scott Nathan, vice president of information technology at American Airlines, told the press, 'I don’t believe everything will work perfectly,' expressing uncertainty over whether the computer glitches would be 'a minor inconvenience or something far worse.' In response, Airbus conducted a test flight in early 1999, where pilots set their clocks ahead to see how the systems would react. (Since you’ve never heard of an 'Airbus Y2K disaster,' the outcome, thankfully, was nothing.)
The issue was critical enough that John Koskinen, Bill Clinton’s Y2K 'czar,' chose to board a flight bound for New York City that would have him airborne as the clock struck midnight. His goal was to reassure the public that everything was fine, and indeed, Koskinen made a safe landing.
3. Prediction: 911 services might stop functioning.
Imagine it’s January 1, 2000. Your toaster catches fire—thanks to Y2K. You try to put it out, but end up burning yourself. The fire spreads to your house. You dial 911. Instead of getting help, you hear a busy signal.
One scenario raised by experts was the possibility of emergency lines going down, since 911 call centers rely on computer switchboards. These systems also retrieve caller information, which is then sent to emergency responders via personal radios. A single glitch in this chain could delay or even prevent timely assistance.
This potential disaster scenario was echoed by a Bell Atlantic spokesperson who spoke to the FCC about possible Y2K issues in November 1998. Local governments were urged to address any system vulnerabilities, while radio equipment manufacturers like Erion were pressured to reassure the public that their devices would continue to function.
By August 1999, however, only an estimated 37 percent of 911 call centers were fully Y2K-compliant, according to the President’s Council on the Year 2000 Conversion. In response, some smaller towns advised residents to call fire departments or police directly instead.
Although there may have been isolated issues, by December nearly all call centers declared they were Y2K-ready. Public safety officials noted that any hiccups on New Year’s Eve would likely be caused by too many people dialing 911 to test the system’s functionality.
4. Prediction: People will resort to using toilet paper as currency.
One of the major Y2K fears was the collapse of essential infrastructure: utilities, stores, and ATMs potentially going offline, which would disrupt everyday transactions. Y2K futurist Gary North even advised people to stockpile toilet paper—not just for personal use, but as a potential bartering item. However, no reports emerged of any actual toilet paper transactions taking place.
5. Prediction: GPS satellites could fail, stranding people.
Before smartphones became widespread, people used GPS devices in their cars, boats, or as handheld navigators. The U.S. Department of the Interior issued a warning that GPS satellites might malfunction, potentially rendering devices useless and leaving campers lost in the wilderness.
'If you’re out on the desert and not paying close attention to your navigation, there could be a problem,' said Interior Department spokesperson Steve King to The Deseret News. 'If we lose just one person, that’s one too many.'
The department urged individuals to verify with their GPS device manufacturers to ensure their equipment was Y2K-ready.
6. Prediction: Elevators will malfunction.
One place that Y2K skeptics definitely didn’t want to be on New Year’s Eve: inside an elevator. In several buildings across New York City, managers decided to halt elevator operations, fearing that blackouts could cause them to freeze up. As a precaution, residential elevators were stopped around 11:50 p.m., with doors left open on the ground floor for about half an hour.
7. Prediction: We’re doomed due to nuclear destruction.
Like a scene from The Day After (or Threads for British audiences), some Y2K experts feared that computer glitches could interfere with nuclear defense systems, potentially triggering an accidental launch and leading to mutual annihilation. Fortunately, this threat was taken very seriously by the U.S. and Russia, both of whom initiated a joint effort to prevent any nuclear mix-ups.
'We are far from optimistic about Russian early warning systems working properly,' said Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre during a House subcommittee hearing in 1999. 'It’s possible that Russian computer screens could go blank.'
It wasn’t exactly the reassuring news you'd expect from a reliable source. However, thanks to the efforts of the Department of Defense, there was little chance for things to go off the rails... mostly. There was an unconfirmed report of a glitch at a nuclear weapons facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, which at the time served as the country’s primary uranium storage site.
