Buzz
With flu season around the corner, it's time to consider getting vaccinated. While The New York Times claims that a cheerful mood might enhance your immune response to the flu shot, offering an extra incentive to visit the pharmacy, this uplifting notion is supported by questionable data.
The Headline: A Cheerful Mood Could Potentially Enhance Your Flu Shot’s Efficacy
The Story: Flu vaccines aren’t foolproof—though it’s crucial to emphasize that if you’re eligible, you should definitely get one—and researchers aren’t fully aware of all the factors affecting their efficacy. Age, for instance, plays a role: the vaccine is 70 to 90 percent effective in young adults but drops to 17 to 53 percent in older individuals. This study aimed to explore how various behavioral and psychological factors influence the vaccine’s effectiveness in elderly patients.
In this research, 122 older adults documented their diets, sleep routines, exercise, stress levels, and moods for two weeks before and 16 weeks after receiving their flu shots. Their flu antibody levels were tested at four and 16 weeks post-vaccination to gauge the vaccine’s effectiveness.
This is where the statistical maneuvering takes center stage. The researchers had a vast amount of data to analyze—on one side, the vaccine’s effectiveness at two intervals; on the other, a multitude of lifestyle factors—to identify patterns and relationships. Complex mathematical calculations were employed to pinpoint results deemed “statistically significant,” ensuring they weren’t merely due to chance or coincidence.
The study revealed a statistically significant link between a positive mood and vaccine effectiveness. However, the researchers failed to account for the numerous variables they tested, which undermines their conclusions. When multiple comparisons are made, the likelihood of a random result appearing significant increases, casting doubt on the findings.
Rebecca Goldin, a Professor of Mathematical Sciences at George Mason University and Director of STATS at Sense About Science, USA, explained it this way:
In this study, the sheer number of comparisons made it almost inevitable that some result would stand out, whether or not a real connection existed. [...] This research does not offer statistical proof supporting or refuting the idea that mood affects vaccine efficacy.
The authors themselves admit this limitation in the study: “Given the exploratory nature of these analyses and to avoid increasing type-2 errors, no adjustments for multiple comparisons were made.” While avoiding type-2 errors (false negatives) was a priority, this approach allowed for the possibility of false positives. With so many variables in play, the study couldn’t yield definitive conclusions. Without further targeted research, the findings remain inconclusive.
The Takeaway: The researchers informed the New York Times that “they couldn’t account for every possible variable, and their observational study doesn’t establish causation.” Indeed, the study doesn’t provide conclusive evidence. While maintaining a positive mood is beneficial and flu shots are essential, the link between the two remains speculative based on the available data.
