Are $2,000 COVID Relief Payments Coming?

Following the Democrats’ Senate runoff win, shifting the balance of power in Washington, President Joe Biden’s legislative goals now have a renewed chance. So, what about those $2,000 COVID relief checks—are we likely to see additional stimulus payments anytime soon?

Positive Indicators

In December, the House easily approved the CASH Act, a proposal to increase the COVID relief checks from $600 to $2,000, but it was blocked in the Republican-controlled Senate after Mitch McConnell refused to bring it to a vote. Now, with the Democratic Party in control of both the House and Senate, the usual hurdles have been cleared (though it’s important to note that President Trump also supported the $2,000 checks).

Earlier this week in Georgia, President-elect Biden emphasized that providing relief checks will be a top priority, stating:

If you send Jon and the Reverend to Washington, those $2,000 checks will be sent out right away. But if Sens. Perdue and [Kelly] Loeffler return to Washington, those checks won’t make it. It’s as simple as that. The decision is literally in your hands.

Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also confirmed on Wednesday that sending out relief checks will be a primary focus of the legislative agenda:

One of the first actions I want to take when our new senators are sworn in is to deliver the $2,000 checks to American families.”

However, the bill still faces criticism, including from moderate Democrats. Some argue that it’s a blunt instrument, poorly targeting those most in need, as checks will be distributed to people who haven’t experienced job losses or income reductions during the pandemic, thereby adding billions to the federal deficit.

Will the relief checks legislation pass?

It’s looking hopeful, but there are a few factors to consider. The House has already passed the CASH Act with a two-thirds majority, so it’s clear that passing a new relief bill won’t be an issue (though it will have to be a new bill, as the CASH Act expired without a Senate vote).

Passing a bill through the Senate is less certain, though, since it’s currently split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote if necessary. With such a narrow margin, there’s no guarantee the bill will pass, especially considering the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. The slim Democratic majority has already been weakened, as Senate Democrat Joe Manchin has opposed $2,000 checks. However, the new bill could also attract Republican support. According to American Prospect:

At least

one Republican

(Josh Hawley of Missouri) and

several

Democrats

have indicated that 60 votes were available for the bill last week. If the Senate elects a majority leader willing to bring the checks to a vote, there’s a strong chance the bill could pass.

A standalone relief bill may have the best odds of passing, though it’s still uncertain what form it will take, or if it will even be for $2,000 (there’s also been discussion of $1,400 checks, which, when added to the $600 already sent this month, would total $2,000 across both bills).

Congressional aides have informed the Washington Post that a relief package is still in the “early stages,” meaning it’s uncertain whether the relief check bill will also include funding for struggling states or an extension of unemployment benefits. So far, Senator Schumer has refrained from revealing the strategy Democrats will pursue.

How soon can we expect the checks?

As the Washington Post points out, it remains unclear how quickly Congress will be able to vote on the checks. Clearly, the vote won’t happen before Inauguration Day on January 20, but there’s also uncertainty around the certification of the Georgia Senate elections, as GOP challenges may delay the process. If the checks are part of a broader relief package that includes more controversial items, additional delays are possible.

To put it simply, predicting when these checks might actually be approved is still a guessing game, but an early-to-mid February timeframe seems like a reasonable estimate.