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In August 2020, heavy rainfall caused the River Ganges to overflow, flooding a temple compound at Manikarnika Ghat in Varanasi, India. (Hindustan Times via Getty Images)If all glaciers and ice caps on Earth were to melt, global sea levels would rise by around 230 feet (70 meters), submerging nearly every coastal city. This devastating scenario is already set in motion today, with global warming, melting Arctic ice, droughts, desertification, and other catastrophic impacts of climate change affecting us right now. Climate change isn't just an environmental issue; it influences every aspect of our lives, from the stability of governments and economies to our health and living conditions.
Imagine your city is flooded — where would you go? This is a question millions of people worldwide have already been forced to answer. In 2017, a record 68.5 million people were displaced by disasters, the highest number in human history, with over a third of them displaced by weather-related events such as floods, wildfires, and storms. According to a 2018 World Bank report focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, without effective climate action, over 143 million people in these regions alone will need to relocate to avoid the effects of climate change by 2050.
By 2050, over 1 billion people will live in countries with inadequate infrastructure to cope with the impacts of climate change. The Pacific Islands are expected to face some of the most severe consequences. Sea levels are already rising there at a rate of nearly 0.5 inches (12 millimeters) per year. Eight islands have already been submerged, and two more are on the brink of disappearing. By 2100, experts predict that 48 additional islands in the Pacific will be fully submerged.
What about the people living in these affected areas? What do we call those who will be forced to leave? The situation is complex, as there is no global consensus on how to categorize these migrants. This lack of standard classification makes it difficult to accurately track how many people are displaced or impacted by climate events. As a result, the term 'environmental refugee' is often used.
The term 'environmental refugee' and its definition are attributed to UN Environment Programme (UNEP) researcher Essam El-Hinnawi, who in 1985 authored a United Nations report titled 'Environmental Refugees.' El-Hinnawi's definition of environmental refugees is as follows:
This definition has since become the foundation for ongoing discussions around the issue.
According to the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention, a refugee is defined as 'someone who is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin due to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion' [source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees]. However, environmental refugees do not meet this legal status.
On March 21, 2019, an Indonesian woman and her children take a break at a refugee center for those displaced by flash floods in Sentani, Papua province, Indonesia. (Ed Wray/Getty Images)How Climate Change Displaces People
The reasons behind why environmental refugees flee their homes are complex, involving both environmental degradation and dire socioeconomic circumstances. People are forced to leave when their safety and livelihoods are threatened. Climate change contributes to this through a variety of effects such as desertification, drought, deforestation, land degradation, rising sea levels, floods, more extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanoes, food insecurity, and famine.
The September 2020 Ecological Threat Register Report, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, predicts that the populations most affected by climate change will be:
- Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa
- Countries such as Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Chad, India, and Pakistan, which are among the world's least peaceful regions
- Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Iran are at the highest risk for large-scale displacements
- Haiti is at the greatest risk in Central America and the Caribbean
- India and China are expected to face significant water stress
The report also indicates that developed countries, including the United States and parts of Europe, are not exempt from these challenges. 'The European refugee crisis following the wars in Syria and Iraq in 2015, which saw 2 million people flee to Europe, underscores the connection between rapid population movements and political instability,' the report notes. However, countries like Sweden, Norway, and Ireland are expected to face minimal threats, according to the findings.
Climate change does not affect all regions and populations equally. While some areas are devastated by floods, others are facing expanding deserts. Desertification and the depletion of resources, such as water and fertile land, are long-term consequences of climate change. However, one of the most significant threats will be food insecurity.
'Ecological threats and climate change present major challenges to global peace,' said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace, in the 2020 Ecological Threat Report. 'In the next 30 years, the lack of access to food and water will only worsen unless there is urgent global cooperation. Without action, civil unrest, riots, and conflict are likely to increase. The COVID-19 pandemic has already exposed weaknesses in the global food supply chain.'
The report predicts that global food demand will rise by 50 percent by 2050. Without a corresponding increase in food supply, many people may face starvation or be forced to migrate in search of food. Currently, over 2 billion people worldwide are already experiencing food insecurity.
When people are faced with the need to flee, their first instinct is often to remain within their own country or region. Leaving their home country requires money and can mean leaving family behind. Relocating from rural areas to cities in search of work and resources may be a more feasible option. Additionally, returning home and resettling after leaving is often unrealistic. While it may be possible to return temporarily to areas affected by events like hurricanes, it is no longer an option when entire coastlines or islands are submerged.
The future effects of climate change will hit the world's poorest populations hardest, but they will also put immense pressure on countries globally due to the mass migration of refugees. Building adaptation strategies and resilience will be essential in reducing displacement risks — both temporary and permanent. These solutions include developing early warning systems, flood-defense infrastructure, sustainable farming practices, drought-resistant crops, and other protective measures.
This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism initiative aimed at strengthening the coverage of climate change.
A well-known example of human migration in the United States occurred during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Poor agricultural practices, combined with environmental and economic crises, left millions of acres of land barren and people in poverty. About one-third of the farmers in the Great Plains, known as the Okies, packed up their families and moved to California, hoping to find migrant labor jobs and escape the drought, winds, and dust storms.
