A photograph of American writer Alvin Toffler
Susan Wood/Getty ImagesIn 1900, John Elfreth Watkins, curator at the Smithsonian Institution, published an article in The Ladies' Home Journal titled 'What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years,' making bold predictions that likely seemed outlandish to many of his readers. While some of Watkins' ideas were far from accurate—such as the disappearance of the letters 'C,' 'X,' and 'Q' from the alphabet, the relocation of streets underground, or the growing of apple-sized strawberries—many of his forecasts have proven eerily prescient. He envisioned wireless communication networks allowing someone in New York to speak with someone in China, global live TV broadcasts, MRI technology, aerial warfare, and fast trains zipping between cities at speeds of up to 150 miles per hour. Remarkably, Watkins even foresaw the rise of food trucks, now a popular trend in U.S. cities [source: Watkins].
Modern futurists aim to predict the trends, inventions, and events that will emerge in the future. While they aspire to be as accurate as Watkins, today's visionaries have refined their approach. Unlike Watkins, who relied mainly on imagination and optimism, current futurists use more sophisticated techniques to make their forecasts. According to Timothy Mack, president of the World Future Society, these experts extensively analyze news media, review scientific studies, and employ structured surveys called 'Delphi polls' to tap into the insights of various field experts. Many also utilize computer simulations and role-playing games to predict potential outcomes of issues like climate change, new energy technologies, or tax reforms [source: Mack].
Futurists, whose work is often funded by corporations and governments preparing for future challenges or seeking a competitive advantage, are also aware that their predictions could influence the future. As Mack puts it, 'The main purpose of studying the future is to look at what may happen if present trends continue, decide if this is desirable, and, if not, work to change it' [source: Mack].
Meet 10 futurists whose predictions have profoundly impacted modern society and shaped our expectations for the future.
10: Alvin Toffler
If you've ever wondered where corporate jargon like 'game changer' or 'change agent' originated, look no further than Alvin Toffler. A former business journalist for Fortune magazine and a consultant for tech giants like IBM, Xerox, and AT&T [source: Alvintoffler.net], Toffler's 1970 book 'Future Shock' popularized the notion that rapid technological advancements -- particularly the advent of computers -- could disrupt society, as many people struggle to keep pace with changes they find overwhelming and disorienting.
Toffler also proposed that the accelerating rate of change could alter how people relate to each other. This would lead to what he called a state of 'high transience,' where relationships grow shorter in duration, and individuals, ideas, and organizations are consumed at a faster rate [source: Toffler]. In this ever-changing world, Toffler predicted that society would become increasingly 'throw-away,' with consumers driven by trends to purchase disposable products designed to meet fleeting needs and perpetuate consumerism [source: Toffler].
When 'Future Shock' was first released, it seemed to offer a vision of a dystopian future, where a high-tech elite would exert control over a stressed-out populace -- much like the science fiction film 'Soylent Green,' but without the iconic outcry of Charlton Heston. Over the years, however, Toffler's predictions have materialized in many ways, from the rise of disposable mobile phones to the emergence of virtual corporations and 'flash mobs' that assemble briefly for a shared cause before dissipating just as quickly.
9: Michio Kaku
Physicist Michio Kaku (right) and musician Mark Everett (left) discuss the concept of 'Parallel Worlds, Parallel Lives' during a panel at the World Science Festival.
Amy Sussman/Getty Images for World Science Festival/Getty ImagesMichio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at the City University of New York, has contributed significantly to the development of string theory, which attempts to reconcile Einstein's theory of relativity with quantum mechanics by suggesting that the universe's fundamental building blocks are tiny strings of energy [sources: PBS, Smith]. However, Kaku is more widely recognized as a bestselling author who excels at explaining complex scientific concepts, predicting future trends, and identifying emerging discoveries that could shape the future.
In his 2011 book, 'Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100,' Kaku uses the 'Delphi poll' method, an informal survey of experts in various scientific fields. He even visits labs to observe prototypes of existing technologies in order to forecast revolutionary developments ahead [source: Kaku]. Based on his findings, Kaku imagines a future with technologies that, today, would seem more like elements of science fiction.
Kaku predicts that future computers will have the ability to 'read our minds,' enabling us to control machines and objects with only our thoughts. He also foresees groundbreaking advances in biotechnology, which will allow humans to extend their lifespans and create entirely new organisms. Nanotechnology will give us the power to manipulate materials at the molecular level, transforming them into entirely new substances, fulfilling the alchemists' dream of turning lead into gold. Additionally, Kaku envisions a world without national borders by 2100, where humanity unites to form a single global civilization [source: Kaku].
8: Christopher Alberg
The technology behind Recorded Future is so promising that it has attracted investment from major players such as Google and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency [source: Shachtman]. However, as Alberg acknowledged in a 2011 interview with Business Insider, the software has its limitations. It excels at predicting regular events, like stock market fluctuations, but struggles with less frequent occurrences, such as elections. Moreover, predicting unpredictable 'black swan' events -- rare, high-impact disasters like the 2008 Wall Street crisis -- remains an ongoing challenge [source: Rosoff].
7: Dirk Helbing
Similar to Alberg and Recorded Future, Helbing -- a physicist, mathematician, and sociologist from Germany -- aims to develop software that can predict the future. However, Helbing has even grander ambitions, seeking to gather data on a global scale, hoping to uncover not just isolated events, but broad, long-term shifts that will shape humanity as a whole.
At the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Helbing is spearheading the Living Earth Simulator Project, a $1.4 billion initiative to create an immense supercomputing system capable of simulating virtually any event on Earth. Helbing refers to the system as a 'nervous system for the planet,' designed to collect data ranging from government economic statistics to everyday tweets. The project will also incorporate data from an expanding network of Internet-connected devices and sensors, as well as photos uploaded by users via their smartphones.
To unravel the overwhelming flood of seemingly disconnected information, LES utilizes advanced algorithms, which are essentially predictive formulas designed to find patterns between disparate events. Helbing imagines that the simulator will be capable of forecasting a wide range of scenarios, including wars, financial collapses, and pandemics, ideally with sufficient lead time for decision-makers in politics, business, and science to intervene and prevent potential disasters [sources: Helbing, Daily Mail, Coldewey]. A consortium consisting of the European Commission and 30 leading research institutions from around the globe is backing the project [source: Daily Mail].
6: Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil speaks at the 2012 SXSW Music, Film + Interactive Festival in Austin, Texas.
Sean Mathis/WireImage/Getty ImagesKurzweil, a native of New York City, displayed his inventive genius at a young age by creating a calculator that could compute square roots using telephone parts when he was just 13. By the late 1960s, while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he had already launched a successful software company, which he sold for $100,000. Over the following decades, Kurzweil invented numerous groundbreaking technologies, including optical character recognition software and music synthesizers. Often hailed as America’s greatest living inventor -- with Inc. magazine dubbing him the "rightful heir to Thomas Edison" -- Kurzweil's reputation as a futurist has arguably surpassed his achievements as an inventor.
Although Kurzweil wasn't the first to suggest that machines would eventually surpass human intelligence, he is the one who boldly set a date for the arrival of the Singularity, the moment when this event is expected to take place. In a 2005 essay, Kurzweil predicted that by 2045, 'nonbiological intelligence' would not only exceed human intelligence, but be one billion times more powerful than the combined mental capacity of all humans today. Far from fearing a destructive AI, as portrayed in the 'Terminator' movies, Kurzweil foresees a future where human and machine intelligence will merge, leading to unprecedented innovations and progress. He also predicts that by the early 2030s, most of our internal organs will be replaced by tiny robots, which will outperform our biological organs, lasting longer and operating more efficiently [sources: Wolf, Kurzweilai.net].
5: William Gibson
William Gibson attends the Festival of Literature at Literature House in Rome, Italy.
Elisabetta A. Villa/WireImage/Getty ImagesRather than relying on data analysis like many forecasters, South Carolina-born Gibson, who authored notable novels like "Neuromancer," "Virtual Light," "Pattern Recognition," and the recent "Zero History," embraces his role as a modern-day Jules Verne. Using his imagination, Gibson paints a futuristic science-fiction picture. Starting his writing career in the early 1980s, Gibson used an old manual typewriter [source: UBC], yet he envisioned a world where global connectivity through a vast computer network allowed people to interact in cyberspace, a term he famously coined.
Gibson’s fictional world strikingly resembled the actual multimedia Internet we now use, which at the time was a rudimentary system connecting only a few university and military institutions [source: Leiner, etal.]. As science journalist Pagan Kennedy observed in 2012, "A decade later, when we all stepped into cyberspace, the word seemed just right" [source: Kennedy]. However, the future Gibson imagines is often dark and dystopian. For instance, his 1988 novel "Mona Lisa Overdrive" describes a disturbing "neuroelectronic" addiction phenomenon where "wireheads" become so hooked on digital content they end up as frail, comatose husks, permanently connected to modems [source: Gibson]. Nevertheless, Gibson also predicted more hopeful uses of technology. In his 1997 book "Idoru," he portrays a Chinese city destroyed by the government, only to be reborn in cyberspace as a haven for political and creative freedom [source: Poole].
4: Aubrey de Grey
Centuries ago, Spanish explorer Ponce de Leon searched for a mythical fountain of youth, believed to possess waters that could reverse the effects of aging. Today, British-born Aubrey de Grey envisions a future where we can realize this goal by altering our bodies at the cellular and molecular level, repairing damage and preventing age-related changes. In fact, he's leading efforts to make it possible for humans to live far longer lives than we currently do.
Starting with a background in computer science, Cambridge University graduate de Grey transitioned to the field of biogerontology. He has developed a plan for human rejuvenation, called Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS), which breaks aging into seven specific types of damage and offers targeted solutions for each. De Grey now heads the SENS Foundation, a nonprofit that promotes research in this area, and serves as the editor-in-chief of Rejuvenation Research, a peer-reviewed scientific journal [source: SENS Foundation]. In a 2010 interview with the Guardian, de Grey predicted that the human lifespan could eventually reach 1,000 years, and he estimated that there’s a 30 to 40 percent chance that the first person to live for a millennium is already alive today [source: Smith].
3: Paul Roberts
Paul Roberts, a 1983 graduate of the University of Washington, is a journalist whose work has appeared in Harper's magazine, National Geographic, and many other notable publications [source: Texas Lutheran University]. He explores the complex interconnections between economics, technology, and the natural world. He is one of the leading proponents of the "peak oil" theory, which suggests that global petroleum production may have already reached its peak and that supplies will steadily decline over the coming decades.
In his 2004 book, "The End of Oil," Roberts predicts that as energy demand continues to rise, especially in developing nations where people aspire to have cars, bigger homes with air conditioning, and access to the electronic entertainment that is prevalent in wealthier countries, the competition for dwindling petroleum and fossil fuel supplies will intensify. This competition will likely lead to conflict and political instability. At the same time, climate change—driven by the burning of petroleum and other fuels—will result in increasingly devastating environmental consequences.
"As energy supplies become more difficult to transport, as environmental damage escalates, and as energy diplomacy deepens geo-political tensions, the strain of the current energy system grows increasingly unbearable—making the likelihood of a major disruption undeniable," writes Roberts. He argues that the U.S., as one of the world's largest energy consumers, must prioritize energy efficiency and develop alternative energy sources to replace petroleum and other fossil fuels in order to avoid a potential global catastrophe [source: Roberts].
2: Faith Popcorn
Faith Popcorn attends the 36th Annual Party in the Garden honoring Steve Martin at Roseland Ballroom in New York.
Carley Margolis/FilmMagic/Getty ImagesOver the past few decades, native New Yorker Faith Popcorn, recognized by Fortune magazine as the "Nostradamus of marketing," and her company BrainReserve have built a successful business advising corporations, from Johnson & Johnson and IBM to Dunkin' Donuts, on how to spot emerging trends and shifting consumer behaviors. Her forecasting technique, outlined in a 1998 Los Angeles Times article, involves meticulously reviewing hundreds of publications and consulting a vast database of thousands of experts across various fields [source: Koenenn].
Popcorn gained recognition for predicting the "cocooning" trend, where people overwhelmed by stimulation prefer staying at home, watching videos instead of going to movie theaters, and ordering take-out food to be delivered to their homes. She also foresaw that many women, after achieving professional success, would become dissatisfied with the corporate "rat race" and leave in search of simpler, healthier lifestyles [source: Kucherawy]. Since then, Popcorn has forecasted a variety of other trends. Some, like the growing demand for cosmetic surgery, tattoos, and body modifications, have already materialized. Other predictions, like young consumers rejecting brand names and customizing designer clothes to express individuality, have yet to unfold [source: Day]. (Interestingly, these predictions also appear in a William Gibson novel.)
1: John Naisbitt
John and Doris Naisbitt speak at the Digital Life Design (DLD) conference at HVB Forum in Munich, Germany.
Johannes Simon/Getty Images for Hubert Burda Media/Getty ImagesA former U.S. Marine and executive at IBM and Kodak, Naisbitt worked as an aide to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson before penning the 1982 bestseller "Megatrends." In it, he predicted the rise of a fast-paced global economy and a society in which information would become as valuable as manufactured goods [source: Naisbitt.com]. Before the internet made news accessible at the click of a button, Naisbitt relied on a paper-based version of searching, where he and his team scanned over 200 daily newspapers to identify recurring patterns and behaviors [source: Salmans].
Since then, Naisbitt has authored several more books, including a 1990 follow-up to "Megatrends," a version of the same book specifically for women, and the 2010 work "China's Megatrends," where he foresaw China creating an entirely new social and economic system that would serve as an alternative to Western-style democracy. Among other predictions, Naisbitt anticipated greater intellectual freedom in China and the emergence of a Chinese-style country music genre [source: Clifford].
