Buzz
At the moment, we're juggling staycations and road trips. Parents and students are gearing up for the hectic beginning of school, whether it's in-person or remote. But soon enough, autumn will be here, and after that, winter will follow. And COVID-19 will still be with us.
Our primary goal is to curb the epidemic's spread. But even in the best-case scenario, with a downward trend in new cases, it will require constant effort to prevent any resurgence. Even if a city or state manages to bring cases down to almost zero, the possibility remains that travel or undiagnosed cases could ignite a fresh outbreak.
Though many are optimistic about a vaccine potentially becoming available this fall or winter, it's highly unlikely that even a fast-tracked vaccine could reach and protect everyone before the year ends.
Brace yourself for a lengthy winter. Here’s what we might expect.
September
Some schools have already started, and a few have had to send students back home. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the schools that are adamantly insisting in-person classes will take place end up changing their stance.
Meanwhile, the remote learning experience should hopefully be an improvement over the makeshift systems many families had to deal with in the spring, though it’s still uncharted territory for most of us. Will things run smoothly? Call me a skeptic, but I’m not counting on it. Whatever plans you have, expect them to be disrupted.
Prepare for a constant wave of cancellations going forward: school terms, sports seasons, conferences, and more. The announcements will likely be even more chaotic than in the spring. Back then, it was clear that everything was going to be canceled. Now, organizers are holding out hope that things might turn around by a certain date. Everyone will be watching each other to see who cancels first.
If you hold a position of authority—whether you're a team coach, a conference panelist, a vocal member of the PTA, or the organizer of a major event at work—consider being the first to suggest, 'Maybe it’s time to cancel.' (You will maintain this responsibility throughout the winter.)
October
Halloween will probably unfold similarly to how school reopenings go. Either we’ll have trick-or-treating and parties, which could lead to new outbreaks, or we won’t, and we’ll have to find alternative plans. Personally, I’m voting for no parties—just bowls of candy and hand sanitizer on every porch, with neighbors shouting through the windows, 'YOU JUST LOOK SO CUTE IN THAT COSTUME!'
In many areas of the US, October marks the onset of cold weather. Outdoor parties and restaurant patios will be a bit chilly, but we’ll push through.
November
First, the election. The damn election. Standing in line to vote in person feels risky. Mail-in ballots have been turned into a political hot topic, even though they actually increase voting access and don’t present a serious risk of fraud. Some states allow you to drop off your ballot in a designated box, but is that option widespread enough? Will we hear about long lines and overflowing drop boxes on election night?
Perhaps there will be COVID outbreaks linked to the election. Or maybe not. Oh, and flu season might start picking up around now.
And what about Thanksgiving? It’s usually one of the busiest travel times of the year, and if you haven’t seen your grandparents since last November, they’re probably already trying to convince you to come visit. If case numbers are still high, staying home might be the safest option. But how many of us will be able to resist?
December
Holiday parties will likely still happen, I’d bet. In a typical year, we already have to pick and choose which invites to decline, just to keep our sanity. This year, we’ll have to decide how many gatherings our ‘contact budget’ allows. Maybe case numbers will be low, and we can let loose a bit. (Though maybe canceling everything would be the better choice.)
If parties do take place and our overall testing and prevention efforts remain disorganized, we’ll likely see a wave of COVID outbreaks originating from various parties—perhaps too many to keep up with.
By now, it’s certainly too cold to hold every gathering outdoors. For those of us in colder regions, meeting in person will mean risking exposure to the coronavirus. We’ll also be envious of California’s weather. (And we might even make plans to visit, trading germs while we’re at it.)
January
This is another turning point that will be challenging for many of us. Back in March, I started to feel that 2020 was a write-off. Every event, every semester, every season—everything. But by 2021, I thought we’d be through the worst of it, and things would be different.
However, if December proves difficult, there’s no reason to expect January to be any better. We could see spikes from holiday gatherings and winter travel. The vaccine—if it materializes—will likely still be far from widespread. And we’ll enter the new year with no clear idea of how much longer we’ll be struggling.
If this feels a bit too grim
So far this year, my pessimistic predictions have been right each time. I told you back in March that this wouldn’t end anytime soon, and in June that it was going to get worse. Our parenting editor, Meghan Walbert, predicted earlier this month that schools would close again after opening, a slow-motion disaster happening right in front of us right now.
I truly, truly hope I’m wrong. Please, prove me wrong. Stay home, cancel every event you can, lobby relentlessly with every local, state, and federal government to put together a realistic plan to keep people safe. Let’s make fast, reliable testing available to everyone who needs it. Let’s pay people to stay home and offer hazard pay to those who can’t. Let’s come up with alternative solutions for everything that’s usually done in person. Let’s study this virus and how it spreads. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll get lucky with a vaccine too.
Back in March, it almost seemed possible to think we could stay indoors for a little while and then return to normal life. In April, it felt like things were just taking a little longer than expected. Now it’s August, and we can see the future unfolding before us, if we dare to face it. It’s going to be a long winter.
