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The Doomsday Clock was established in 1947 by a collective of scientists from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, including the renowned Albert Einstein. Each year, a panel of specialists, including 13 Nobel Laureates, decides where to position the clock’s hands based on global developments. The clock represents a dire equation—the nearer the minute hand is to midnight, the closer the world is to catastrophe.
Since its creation in 1947, the Doomsday Clock has fluctuated, from seventeen minutes to midnight in 1991 to only two minutes to midnight in 1953. On January 24, 2023, the clock was set to 90 seconds before midnight, marking the closest it has ever been to the symbolic moment of humanity's potential end.
Let’s now examine ten key facts you should know about the Doomsday Clock.
10. The Origins and Evolution of the Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock isn’t a literal timepiece, but a symbolic representation created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, showing a clock face with hands indicating how close we are to the brink of destroying life as we know it. The scientists involved in its creation were also key figures in the Manhattan Project, having helped develop the atomic bomb, but they opposed its use on human populations. Since the Bulletin’s founding, it has updated the clock's time each year to reflect the current state of global threats.
The original intent of the Doomsday Clock was to illustrate the looming danger of nuclear conflict, particularly during the Cold War arms race between the Soviet Union and the United States. Over time, the scope of its warning has expanded to include a range of global issues. A physical version of the Doomsday Clock is displayed at the University of Chicago.
9. Existential Terror
The decision to shift the clock’s hands to just 90 seconds before midnight follows a year marked by significant global instability. Nuclear threats were exchanged almost monthly between Trump and Kim Jong Un, and more recently, the escalating conflict in Ukraine has raised concerns of a potential war with Russia, discussed openly by military leaders in the West.
In this volatile environment, the Doomsday Clock stands as a dire warning of the global risk of nuclear warfare. It symbolizes humanity's looming disaster, with midnight representing the final, catastrophic moment.
Rachel Bronson, the President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, emphasized the gravity of our current situation, stating: “We are living in a time of unprecedented danger, and the Doomsday Clock reflects this reality. At 90 seconds to midnight, it is the closest the Clock has ever been to midnight, a decision our experts do not make lightly. The U.S. government, its NATO partners, and Ukraine have various channels for communication, and we urge world leaders to engage them fully in efforts to push the Clock back.”
8. Single Events Do Not Affect the Clock
It is crucial to understand that the Doomsday Clock cannot be altered by a single event, whether it is good or bad. For example, the Bulletin chose not to adjust the Clock after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. However, the increasing threat of terrorism led to the U.S. contemplating a withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty the following year. This, coupled with international terrorism and the ongoing war in Afghanistan, caused the time to move from nine minutes to seven minutes to midnight.
Similarly, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis did not lead to any immediate changes in the Clock. Instead, it prompted a new treaty to limit nuclear tests in the atmosphere the following year, resulting in the Clock being set backward.
7. The Risks of Artificial Intelligence
The Bulletin has flagged several significant threats, including artificial intelligence (AI), the potential release of dangerous pathogens from labs, and diseases like Ebola and other zoonotic threats that endanger humanity. The COVID pandemic made it clear that we need to improve our preparedness for future pandemics.
In 2017, a group of tech giants and prominent scientists, such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, signed an open letter urging the United Nations to ban weapons that humans cannot effectively control. The letter highlighted the extreme dangers of triggering a global arms race in AI technologies, suggesting that the risks could be far more catastrophic than those posed by traditional weapons of mass destruction.
6. Addressing Climate Change
After years of debate, the Bulletin officially included climate change risks in its calculations in 2008. The decision was based on concerns about the severe dangers posed by rising global temperatures, rapid advancements in life sciences, and other technological developments that threaten the planet.
Russia's position as the second-largest producer of oil and natural gas in the world made the invasion of Ukraine a critical turning point. The European Union, in particular, raced to free itself from dependency on Russian gas. As a result, global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels reached an all-time high in 2022, bouncing back from the pandemic-induced economic slowdown in 2021.
5. The Clock Has Been Reset 25 Times in Total
The clock was originally set at seven minutes to midnight in 1947. Since then, it has been adjusted a total of 25 times: eight times to move backward and seventeen times to move forward. The furthest the clock has ever been from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991, while the closest it has been was 90 seconds on January 24, 2023. Remarkably, the Bulletin has adjusted the clock hand away from midnight almost as often as it has moved it closer, regardless of which political party has been in power in the U.S.
The closest we've ever been to midnight before now was in 1953, when the clock was set to just two minutes to midnight. This shift followed the testing of fusion weapons, or 'H-bombs,' by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union within nine months of each other.
4. A Time of Great Optimism
The clock’s hands are capable of moving forward, backward, or remaining stationary. In 1991, it was positioned the farthest from midnight, a record 17 minutes, driven by the optimism following the end of the Cold War. The clock had to be moved outside its original segment to reflect this 'best of times' moment, at 17 minutes to midnight.
The transition marked a collective sense of relief as we had survived 45 years without a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Sadly, that peace only lasted for about a decade, as the early 2000s introduced what the Bulletin referred to as a 'new nuclear age,' and the clock began ticking once more.
3. Ninety Seconds to Midnight
According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the decision to move the clock’s hands was largely driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago, escalating the nuclear risk. The group's choice was also shaped by the ongoing climate crisis and the deterioration of global norms and institutions necessary to address the threats posed by advanced technology and biological dangers like recent viral outbreaks.
The Bulletin also acknowledged the rising nuclear capabilities of China, North Korea, Iran, and India. The growing threat of climate change, driven by increasing carbon dioxide emissions and extreme weather events, was a major concern. Additionally, infectious diseases, biosecurity, and 'cyber-enabled disinformation'—which poses a real threat to democracy—were also taken into account. As it stands, we are now just 90 seconds from midnight. But, that could be 90 seconds from the end of the world…
2. What Happens at Midnight?
The scientists responsible for the Doomsday Clock stress that every adjustment made to the dial is meant to serve as both a call to action and a reminder of the current threats facing humanity, rather than being a fixed, inevitable timeline for our future. Yet, people are naturally curious about what might happen if the clock ever reaches its midnight hour.
A global catastrophe would have occurred if the Doomsday Clock strikes midnight. This could mean the outbreak of nuclear war, an unstoppable danger to the world’s bio- or cybersecurity, or irreversible, catastrophic climate change. Sadly, in such an event, it's unlikely the clock would be adjusted again, as there would be no one left to carry out the task.
1. The Worst of Times
Before January 24, the two most perilous moments in global history were in 1949 and 1953. In 1949, the Bulletin moved the clock to 11:57, or three minutes to midnight, following the Soviet Union's successful atomic bomb test, marking a moment when the world teetered on the edge of disaster.
However, in 1953, scientists urged world leaders to recognize the danger they were facing, and some of those warnings were heeded. As diplomatic efforts helped avoid nuclear war in the late 1950s, the clock was reset, and by 1963, the world was considered relatively 'safe' at 12 minutes away from doom.
