Buzz
Though Labor Day might mark the end of summer for many, it doesn't seem to have done much to alleviate the extreme heat in regions still sweltering under high temperatures. However, there may be some hope for those who long for cooler days. According to the newly released 2016 editions of both the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmers' Almanac, unusually cold conditions are expected to sweep across much of the nation this winter.
While it's enjoyable to imagine these chilly predictions during the heat of summer, it raises an important question: How is it possible for a yearly publication to predict winter weather months in advance, especially when my local meteorologist struggles to accurately forecast whether I’ll need an umbrella tomorrow?
The Hidden Formula
Almanacs have long been annual publications, offering detailed information about the year, such as sunrise and sunset times, holidays, moon phases, and solstices. The calendar hanging on your wall is a simple version of an almanac. In their early days, some almanacs used celestial events to predict whether certain days would bring good or bad luck, similar to the horoscopes we read today. By the 17th century, almanacs had become so popular in England that they rivaled the Bible. Around this time, they began appearing in the American colonies, providing seasonal weather forecasts, home management advice, and fun features like puzzles and jokes.
The Farmers’ Almanac (first published in 1818) and the Old Farmers’ Almanac (established in 1792) are two of the most prominent surviving almanacs. The Farmers’ Almanac is known for its long-term weather forecasts, predicting weather up to two years in advance. Today, it boasts an annual circulation of over 2.6 million copies and a readership of 7 million.
Both almanacs claim an accuracy rate of about 80 percent. Their forecasts are the result of top-secret mathematical formulas that factor in elements like sunspot activity, tidal movements, and planetary positions.
Sandi Duncan, the managing editor of the Farmers' Almanac, states that the formula is so secret even she does not know it, despite working with the publication for over two decades. “I might be able to access it if I gave up my firstborn or something.” The formula is solely entrusted to one individual: a weather forecaster who has gone by the name “Caleb Weatherbee” since the Almanac’s inception. The editors maintain strict confidentiality about Caleb’s real identity, only confirming that he exists. “He is a real person,” Duncan explains. “We don’t want anyone pestering Caleb. He has an important job, and we need to ensure he can continue doing it.”
Indeed, it’s a critical role. The current Caleb Weatherbee is the seventh to hold the position in nearly 200 years of the publication’s history. He has served for 25 years and is expected to continue for life. How did he land this prestigious job? According to Duncan, “there was something special in the stars.” He was passionate about weather and a longtime fan of the Almanac. To be Caleb Weatherbee requires a unique person, someone who “probably looks beyond the computers and radar systems and recognizes that nature and the weather formula often provide more accurate long-range forecasts.”
Thus, we return to the elusive weather formula, which Duncan likens to the closely guarded recipes of KFC and Coca-Cola. “We’ve got to protect it,” she says. “We don’t want anyone cracking the code.”
The Prediction Dilemma
This secrecy has long frustrated skeptical scientists who have tried, for years, to test the formula. “Whenever you have science that’s kept secret or influenced by politics, something is definitely off,” says Jan Null, a certified consulting meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services. He started analyzing the Old Farmers’ Almanac’s accuracy in 2000 after seeing public officials, such as water managers, rely on its forecasts. “It’s accurate about 25 to 30 percent of the time, nowhere near the 80 percent accuracy they often claim.”
Part of the issue, he explains, is that predicting the weather two years ahead with precision is nearly impossible, even with the most advanced technology. “If someone truly had the key to that, imagine how incredibly wealthy they’d be,” he says. “They’d dominate the commodities market. But that person doesn’t exist. No one has cracked the code for long-range weather forecasting.” Typically, he notes, forecasts can be fairly accurate for the next seven days, but anything beyond that sees a steep drop in reliability.
Duncan defends the Almanac’s predictions, pointing to their forecast for the previous winter. “We were spot on,” she says. “We predicted a very cold, very snowy winter.” However, this brings up another challenge in gauging the Almanac’s accuracy: Its forecasts are so general that they’re often almost meaningless. In regions that experience winter, it is cold and snowy by nature.
Verifying the Formula
But surely, there must be something about the Almanac’s approach that lends it some level of credibility, right? Since I couldn’t access the actual formula, I turned to a few scientists and meteorologists to explain how factors like sunspot activity, lunar cycles, and planetary positioning might influence seasonal weather predictions. Here's another issue: they don’t. At least, not in any significant way.
Let’s consider the planets: According to meteorologists from the National Weather Service, our elliptical orbit and planetary positions have little, if any, effect on the weather. Here’s their take, smiley face included: “...we are closest to the sun during the northern hemisphere winter, and this obviously doesn’t stop us from experiencing cold weather. :) There's also a slight wobble in Earth's tilted axis, but the cycle of this wobble is incredibly long, spanning hundreds or even thousands of years, which means it has an even lesser effect on seasonal weather.”
What about ocean tides? “Tides don’t impact the weather,” says Null. “Sea level fluctuates every six hours, that’s about it.”
Among the methods the Almanac claims to use, sunspot activity is the only one that scientists say might have a minor effect on the weather. “Sunspot activity is indeed slightly correlated with Earth's climate,” says Dr. Shane Keating, a physicist specializing in atmosphere-ocean science.
In simple terms, the sun’s magnetic field reverses its polarity approximately every 11 years. During this cycle, the number of sunspots fluctuates. Some evidence suggests that periods with fewer sunspots might lead to regional, and possibly global, cooling. “However, the impact is quite minor compared to the natural variations in Earth's climate,” Keating explains. And if there is any impact, it would manifest over the course of years or decades, rather than in just a single season, according to NWS meteorologists. “Sunspot activity alone cannot reliably forecast whether your summer will be hot or your winter cold,” they note.
Duncan acknowledges that the Almanac isn't infallible and encourages people to continue paying attention to their local weather experts. “We’re pleased when our predictions hit the mark, but of course, there are times when they miss, and we own up to that,” she says. “Mother Nature likes to remind us all, no matter what weather formula we rely on, that she’s in charge, and sometimes none of us can predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy.”
