Buzz
In 1940, crowds gathered in Times Square to watch "The Grapes of Wrath." The film earned approximately $1.6 million, doubling its production budget and marking it as a box office triumph.
A. E. French/Hulton Archive/Getty ImagesOn Sundays, publications like Variety, popular entertainment blogs, or local newspapers often feature summaries of the weekend's box office performance. Although the weekend totals cover Friday to Sunday, reporters frequently rely on projected figures to meet deadlines, even before Sunday's moviegoers have made their selections.
Although the final weekend data isn't available until Monday afternoon or evening, the box office estimates published on Sunday are usually remarkably precise. Do entertainment journalists possess clairvoyance? Not exactly, but they are adept at interpreting box office trends and patterns.
Theater owners provide real-time updates on ticket sales for Friday and Saturday, and major industry data services track about 90% of theaters. By Sunday, the early weekend figures are well-documented, allowing those familiar with box office dynamics to accurately predict Sunday's sales and, consequently, the overall weekend box office performance.
Ever wondered how experts predict a movie's earnings before the weekend concludes? Discover how trends offer crucial insights into Sunday's box office performance.
Decoding the Drop
Typically, ticket sales decrease by approximately 25 to 30 percent from Saturday to Sunday, though exceptions to this trend do exist.
altrendo images/Altrendo/Getty ImagesPredicting Sunday's box office revenue hinges on understanding the drop. Since Saturdays usually draw larger crowds than Sundays, a decline in sales is expected. By analyzing the extent of this drop, it becomes straightforward to forecast a film's Sunday performance, often before the first audience members take their seats for the day's initial showing.
Typically, a movie's ticket sales decrease by 25 to 30 percent from Saturday to Sunday [source: Mondello]. For instance, during the weekend of Aug. 15-17, 2014, the top 10 films experienced a Saturday-to-Sunday sales drop ranging from 23.3 to 37.4 percent, averaging 28.7 percent [source: Box Office Mojo]. To project Sunday earnings, multiply Saturday's figures by 65 to 75 percent. Adding this to Friday and Saturday totals provides a reliable weekend box office estimate.
Predicting weekend box office performance is far from precise, as the 25 to 30 percent decline isn't always consistent. Variety suggests a broader range of 20 to 50 percent from Friday to Saturday, though studios and analysts can often predict where a film will fall within this range by considering factors like demographics, genre, exit polls, and release dates [source: McClintock]. For example, teen-targeted films often see a significant Saturday-to-Sunday drop, while G-rated movies may experience a smaller decline due to Sunday matinees favored by families [source: Mondello].
Studios leverage historical data and expertise to estimate potential drops and predict Sunday sales. For instance, Slate noted that "The Phantom Menace" saw a 10 percent Saturday-to-Sunday drop during its opening weekend, while "Attack of the Clones" dropped 22 percent. Using this data, Fox projected a 16 percent drop for "Star Wars," closely matching the actual 15.9 percent decline for "Revenge of the Sith" [source: Snyder].
Box Office Surprises
Fans are hopeful that "Zoolander 2" will outperform its predecessor during its opening weekend.
Paramount Pictures/Moviepix/Getty ImagesDespite thorough analysis, some films inevitably surprise both studios and audiences. Studios, responsible for forecasting box office performance and Sunday drops, often influence predictions to either generate hype or temper expectations. Media outlets relay these estimates, which can be inflated to spark interest or conservative to avoid disappointment when final numbers are revealed.
Beyond studio biases, external factors like holidays, natural disasters, or unexpected events can complicate Sunday sales predictions. For example, "Avatar" faced slower sales during a 2009 East Coast snowstorm, while "Zoolander" underperformed following the Sept. 11 attacks.
Movies can also exceed expectations. "Avatar" stunned analysts with a mere 3.1 percent Saturday-to-Sunday drop during its 2009 opening [source: Box Office Mojo]. Similarly, Warner Brothers' $150 million projection for "The Dark Knight" was surpassed when the film earned $158.4 million, thanks to an 8 percent Sunday drop [source: Finke].
While historical trends help predict Sunday ticket sales, the true box office outcome remains uncertain until final figures are released. That's the unpredictable nature of Hollywood.
