Is it possible for the internet to collapse due to excessive use?

The COVID-19 pandemic, along with its associated self-isolation measures, has led to more adults and children staying at home, spending unprecedented hours on their computers and smartphones for work, study, and entertainment, which in turn places immense pressure on the internet. To prevent internet congestion, Netflix and YouTube have begun lowering streaming quality in Europe. These actions followed a request from EU authorities for streaming platforms and users to limit high-definition video usage 'to prevent the internet from breaking,' as CNN reported on March 20.

This situation has many of us wondering: With so many people at home consuming vast amounts of data, could the internet suddenly cease functioning?

Experts monitoring global technology and internet usage reassure that while total internet failure is technically possible, it is highly unlikely. Instead, disruptions such as cyberattacks or the physical severing of undersea cables, which carry vast amounts of data, are more probable causes of internet instability than excessive activity.

"Nothing is immune to overload, including the internet," says Paul Levinson, a communications and media studies professor at Fordham University. "But the internet is designed with vast redundancy and backup systems." Levinson explains that while a specific app or service may go offline, it's improbable that the entire system will fail. Additionally, many of the people who maintain the internet are accustomed to remote work, so they are ready to handle the situation even during a crisis like this one.

Luke Deryckx, Chief Technology Officer at Ookla, points out that the main concern isn't with the infrastructure of the internet, but rather with the growing number of end users sharing the same WiFi networks (such as within families). His company analyzes internet traffic patterns and offers speed tests to help users understand the actual speeds of their connections.

Ookla observed slowdowns in residential internet speeds in early March, particularly in areas like New York and California, where COVID-19 had a severe impact or triggered shelter-in-place orders. Other countries that were hit hard early in the pandemic, such as China and Italy, also saw significant slowdowns. However, China is now seeing improvements with fewer reported cases of the virus.

Internet service providers (ISPs) are experiencing a shift in demand patterns. According to Cloudflare, a web security company, the peak demand for internet in the U.S. used to occur around 7:30 p.m., when families typically settled in for their evening routines, including watching streaming content. Now, the peak demand has shifted to around 11:00 a.m. and lasts longer, reflecting changing daily habits in response to the pandemic.

Currently, most networks are managing to stay operational, despite some issues elsewhere, according to Deryckx. "The networks are holding up," he says.

This isn't always the case for specific apps or websites, which may experience challenges.

"Apart from ISPs, the service platforms people rely on are also impacted," he explains. This means that while your ISP might be functioning normally, services like Netflix or Zoom may struggle with high traffic. For example, they might not have enough servers to manage the surge in usage.

At present, video conferencing tools, essential for remote learning, meetings, and entertainment, are facing some delays. Meanwhile, financial trading platforms encountered repeated disruptions as the stock market took a dive in early March. Facebook, too, is finding it difficult to manage both the surge in traffic and the challenge of having 45,000 employees working from home for the first time.

Preventing Internet Overload

You can track slowdowns and service outages by checking Down Detector. As of this publication, issues were reported with the video game Call of Duty, the video conferencing platform Zoom, and the food delivery service Doordash, reflecting the current situation.

To prevent widespread issues like this, communications companies are already working hard behind the scenes.

"Rather than limiting usage, the best way to prevent a system crash is to ensure that the infrastructure is strong and to implement backup systems," says Levinson. Deryckx agrees, noting that engineering teams around the world are currently enhancing their baseline network infrastructure to handle the growing number of users.

"We are witnessing a fundamental shift in human behavior, not just in internet usage trends. The internet has become increasingly vital to our daily lives," says Deryckx. "You can see this happening every day; it's a fascinating process to be part of."

If the pandemic lasts 18 months or longer, as some experts believe is possible, online services will be crucial in every aspect of life. This situation could also widen the digital divide in America, referring to the fact that many Americans still lack reliable access to high-speed internet.

For those individuals facing hardships, accessing education, work, and other essential life needs will be more challenging than ever. This is particularly true for Americans earning less than $30,000 annually – one-third of them lack smartphones, and nearly half don’t have broadband internet or even a basic desktop computer, according to Pew Research Center.