Buzz
Having a particularly rainy summer doesn't necessarily mean your winter will mirror it.
MarianVejcik/iStock/ThinkstockImportant Insights
- The link between summer weather and winter forecasts is unreliable, with no scientific data supporting the accuracy of such predictions.
- Folklore methods, such as watching animal behavior to predict weather, are based on chance and lack scientific backing.
- Long-term weather predictions remain highly uncertain, with the National Weather Service refuting theories that connect summer weather to winter conditions.
Here’s some good news: You can supposedly predict an entire season’s weather, months in advance, based on just about anything. For example, the Old Farmer's Almanac offers all kinds of quirky ways to forecast a harsh winter. One of the odd suggestions? Check the back of your cow's neck. If the hair is unusually thick, brace yourself for snow! No cow available? No problem! Just look out for pigs gathering sticks [source: Geiger]. Yes, pigs. Gathering sticks. A surefire sign of an impending rough winter—or maybe they’re just assembling a porcine army to overthrow your civilization and all that you hold dear.
Here’s the tough truth: Even if you’re hit with a harsh winter after the Great Piggy Uprising, the accurate forecast you read was likely just a matter of chance. While climatologists and meteorologists rely on advanced science and climate data to predict the likelihood of a bad winter, the predictions aren’t based on the summer weather. There’s simply no pattern that links summer conditions to what we’ll face in winter. In fact, even autumn forecasts are full of uncertainties, as forecasters themselves admit, making them far from foolproof [source: Rudd "Cool"; Samenow].
That doesn’t mean people aren’t trying to make these predictions. Many industries are desperate for early weather information. Consider sectors that are heavily influenced by the weather, such as viniculture or utilities (power companies, for example, need to prepare for the possibility of extensive power outages caused by downed lines during the winter).
So companies may hire meteorologists to develop long-term weather predictions, but these experts will carefully explain all the variables involved and outline several possible scenarios [source: Cohen; Samenow]. In other words, they’re unlikely to make definitive claims like, "Because I spent my Fourth of July cooped up indoors during a thunderstorm, I’m absolutely certain that a mild winter is ahead."
The National Weather Service has refuted the idea that a mild, rainy summer automatically leads to a cold, snowy winter. After analyzing nearly a century of data, experts found no evidence that a lackluster summer translates into a powerful winter [source: NWS]. So, unfortunately, long-term weather forecasts will continue to be unpredictable. But if you spot any pigs wielding branches, it might be time to dig out that snow shovel. It never hurts to be prepared.
