Study Indicates Plastics to Exceed Coal in U.S. Carbon Emissions

A report published on October 21 by Beyond Plastics, an initiative at Bennington College in Vermont, reveals that by 2030, plastics will surpass coal plants in the U.S. in driving climate change. Despite this, the plastics industry's full environmental impact remains largely unaddressed by policymakers and businesses, operating with minimal public oversight and governmental accountability, as highlighted in the report.

Judith Enck, head of Beyond Plastics and former EPA regional administrator, notes that the report was strategically released ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow, Scotland, where global leaders will convene to address climate change strategies. "While waste is briefly discussed, the significant role of plastics in climate change is notably absent from the agenda," Enck remarked in a video interview.

The study, titled "New Coal: Plastics and Climate Change," utilizes both public and private datasets to examine 10 phases of plastic production in the U.S., such as gas extraction, transportation, manufacturing, and waste management. It reveals that the U.S. plastics sector currently emits at least 255 million tons (232 million metric tons) of greenhouse gases annually, comparable to the output of roughly 116.5 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants. This figure is anticipated to grow as numerous plastic production facilities are being built nationwide, particularly in Texas and Louisiana, as stated in the report.

"The petrochemical sector — a branch of the fossil fuel industry — has been quietly increasing its investments in plastic production," Enck explained. "Unless you reside in the affected areas, most people remain unaware of this development."

Fracking for Plastic

Although plastic waste and microplastics have received significant media attention, the environmental consequences of plastic manufacturing have been largely overlooked. Producing everyday items like food packaging and drink bottles involves extracting gases through fracking, transporting them, and processing them industrially. Each stage generates millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions, especially methane, which is 25 times more effective than carbon dioxide at retaining atmospheric heat.

Shale fracking is the primary method for obtaining gases like ethane and methane, essential for plastic production. However, fracking can emit substantial amounts of methane, pollute surface and groundwater, and even cause earthquakes, as noted in the report.

The report estimates that U.S. fracking releases approximately 36 million tons (32 million metric tons) of CO2e annually, equivalent to the emissions of 18 average-sized (500-megawatt) coal-fired power plants in 2020. These figures are projected to increase with rising plastic demand and expanding fracking operations.

"Cracking" Ethane

One of the most environmentally damaging phases of plastic production is ethane "cracking." At facilities known as "cracker plants," fracked gases are heated to extreme temperatures until their molecules break down into compounds like ethylene, the base material for polyethylene. Polyethylene is widely used in products ranging from single-use food containers to grocery bags and children's toys.

The report states that ethane cracker plants emitted 70 million tons (6 million metric tons) of CO2e in 2020, equivalent to the emissions of about 35 average-sized coal-fired power plants. The sector's growth is expected to contribute an additional 42 million tons (38 million metric tons) of greenhouse gases annually by 2025.

The report also emphasizes "chemical recycling," a process that converts plastics into fuel but generates significant carbon emissions. Although chemical recycling is currently limited, its potential expansion could add up to 18 million tons (16.3 million metric tons) of greenhouse gases each year, as per the report.

Enck notes that the report's figures are "very conservative," suggesting that the actual greenhouse gas emissions are likely higher than estimated.

"Many emissions remain unaccounted for," she explained. "For example, significant burning occurs at cement kilns, and the U.S. EPA lacks data on the emissions from these sources."

A major revelation is that approximately 90 percent of the plastics industry's reported climate emissions originate from facilities located near low-income, predominantly minority communities in states such as Texas and Louisiana.

"This underscores how plastic production and disposal are deeply tied to environmental justice and equity concerns," Enck stated.

Plastic Is the New Coal

In 2019, the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) published a comparable report titled "Plastic and Climate Change: The Hidden Costs of a Plastic Planet," which examined the global carbon footprint of the plastics industry. Using cautious estimates, it projected that by 2050, plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions could surpass 56 gigatons, accounting for 10 to 13 percent of the remaining carbon budget.

Steven Feit, a senior attorney at CIEL and co-author of "Plastics and Climate Change," noted that the Beyond Plastics report offers a "nearly complete overview" of current greenhouse gas emissions from plastics and the anticipated increase due to planned facility expansions in the U.S. over the coming years. He emphasized that the report sheds light on aspects of the plastics industry not covered in the CIEL report, such as the carbon footprint of insulating foams, additives, feedstock production, and chemical recycling.

"This timely report is a significant contribution that further clarifies the severe climate impacts of the plastics industry," Feit stated via email. "By pinpointing 10 distinct yet interconnected sources of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the plastic lifecycle, 'The New Coal' underscores the inseparable connection between plastic and the climate crisis, highlighting why solutions addressing only one aspect of the plastics problem are inadequate."

Climate change is recognized as one of nine planetary boundaries essential for sustaining life on Earth. The boundary is defined as 350 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a threshold exceeded in 1988, leading to a new era marked by rising global temperatures and extreme weather. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures could rise by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels within 43 years, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) sixth assessment report.

Bloomberg Philanthropies and Beyond Coal report that over 65 percent of U.S. coal plants were decommissioned by 2020. While this is a significant achievement, Enck warned that the progress made in shutting down these plants could be negated by emissions from plastics unless plastic production and use are significantly reduced.

"Plastic is the new coal," Enck declared. "Reducing plastic usage is essential if we are to meet climate change targets."

This story originally appeared in Mongabay and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism initiative enhancing climate story coverage.