Buzz
Here’s an uncomfortable truth about lockdowns: they worked, to some extent. That means that with their removal, we will likely see an increase in COVID-19 cases again. Reopening isn't a sign of relief, but a moment filled with uncertainty. How much more severe will things become?
For the best guidelines on wearing face masks, be sure to watch this video:
When I say lockdowns 'worked,' here’s what I mean: they successfully slowed the spread of the virus, but they didn’t eliminate it. In fact, they could have perhaps done so entirely. Take New Zealand, for example—a nation with a population comparable to Alabama. They locked down early and meticulously tracked infections and their contacts. Thanks to their status as an island nation, they also had the advantage of restricting travel in a way most states cannot. Their lockdowns were strict, and their reopening slow and steady. Now, New Zealand has zero cases, and almost all restrictions have been lifted.
But we're not New Zealand. In my state, Pennsylvania, new COVID-19 cases have been consistently decreasing. However, with the current count at 467 as I write this, it's still higher than we had back in mid-March. Do you remember March? On March 29, we had already reached 642 cases (though with less testing, so the actual number was likely higher). The day after that, my kids' school district announced that the two-week school closure would be extended by at least another month.
The exact case numbers differ across states, but there are some clear takeaways. First, the measures we took were effective, even if they weren’t enough. Two recent studies confirm that they saved millions of lives. One study estimated that distancing, masks, and other precautions prevented 60 million infections worldwide. Cities and states that faced severe outbreaks, like New York, have managed to reduce their case numbers.
The other key takeaway is that, as nearly every public health expert predicted, reopening often leads to a spike in cases after a few weeks. Texas recently reported its highest-ever case numbers. Arizona’s surge has gotten so bad that its governor has instructed hospitals to activate their emergency plans to increase capacity. Colorado is still seeing a decline in cases, but the governor expects a rise due to protests and surges in neighboring states.
Now is a perfect moment to take stock of your emergency supplies.
The current spikes in cases are largely due to the lifting of restrictions in May, as well as activities during Memorial Day weekend. It’s still too early to determine how protests will influence case numbers, and even once that data arrives, it will be challenging to separate the impact of protests from that of the reopenings that occurred around the same time.
The key takeaway here is that, regardless of where you are in the US, it’s likely things will get worse before they get better. Now is an ideal time to check on your emergency supplies. Do you have enough food and toilet paper to get through the next surge, should it happen?
Governors are under significant political pressure regarding their stay-at-home orders. I believe very few will be willing to reverse their reopening plans and ask businesses to shut down again. If I’m right, this means we may be even more on our own than before. You might find it wiser to continue working out at home, even if your gym is open. Whatever unfolds, stay safe and be prepared in case things really do worsen.
