Buzz
Is it preparation for the unavoidable or deliberate planning for something hidden? This is the question that has intrigued millions worldwide who have come across the following. While simulations can undoubtedly serve as valuable tools for learning how to react to potential threats, some types of training are far more unsettling than others.
It's one thing to determine how to handle a potential economic meltdown. But when the discussion turns to a bioterrorism strike, a cyber pandemic, or an airplane hijacking, it's hard to deny that something inherently unsettling is at play here.
But maybe that’s part of the fascination, right?
In any case, here are some of the most unnerving government simulations ever conducted.
10. Plan A
Executed in late 2019 by the Pentagon and crafted by the Princeton Science and Global Security Project Team, Plan A simulated the potential unfolding of a full-scale nuclear war with Russia in the context of today’s world.
The simulation begins with a U.S./NATO alliance edging too close to Russia, provoking the country into action. As a warning, Russia launches a nuclear missile into NATO territory, triggering a retaliatory nuclear strike, escalating the conflict rapidly.
In mere hours, nuclear bombs wipe out nearly all of Europe, leaving little chance of survival from the devastating fallout and radiation. With Europe decimated, the U.S. mainland retaliates with a massive nuclear assault, and Russia launches a counterattack on American soil. By the end of the first few hours of the war, 90 million people have perished worldwide.
This is a conservative estimate, however, as the simulation doesn’t account for long-term injuries (such as cancer) or deaths caused by radiation exposure. If you were hoping for a 'Red Dawn' situation, the simulation suggests you’d be lucky to survive the first day of a Russia-U.S. conflict.
9. Clade X
In 2018, 10 experts from various fields took part in a more intense, real-world version of Dungeons and Dragons: a bioterrorism attack.
After a bioweapon is released simultaneously in Venezuela and Germany, the pathogen, known as Clade X, spreads across the globe. Participants in the simulation worked to learn as much as they could about this novel pathogen and determined the best strategies to contain the outbreak, preserve infrastructure, and prevent mass casualties.
8. Dark Winter
On June 22-23, 2001, another bioweapon attack against the U.S. was simulated, this time involving a novel smallpox outbreak. The exercise took place over 13 days, with the first case of smallpox appearing in Oklahoma City on Day One.
The pox quickly spread to 25 U.S. states and 15 countries worldwide. Various government agencies participated in the simulation, revealing that such an attack would lead to widespread casualties, a collapse of critical institutions, violations of human rights, and the near-collapse of the healthcare system.
There has been growing concern over the repeated use of the term 'dark winter' in reference to the winter of 2021-2022.
If you're curious about how you would fare in the Dark Winter scenario, you can find the script for the simulation online and try it out yourself.
7. Vigilant Guardian 01
On the morning of September 11, 2001, NORAD was conducting Exercise Vigilant Guardian 01, a simulation designed to assess how American leaders would respond if a passenger plane were hijacked and flown into a building.
During the simulation, the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon unfolded in real life. Participants initially faced confusion, uncertain if the attacks were part of the exercise or actual events, only to eventually grasp the shocking reality.
6. Lock Step
Developed by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Global Business Network, Lock Step was one of four scenarios featured in 2010 under the title 'Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development,' available online for reading.
This simulation depicted a global influenza outbreak, originating from geese, natural carriers of the virus. In just seven months, 20% of the global population became infected, resulting in 8,000,000 deaths, mostly among young, healthy adults.
The poorer nations faced far worse consequences, primarily due to the lack of established containment measures, while China emerged as a global leader in managing the crisis. As the scenario notes: 'A few countries did fare better—China, in particular. The Chinese government’s quick imposition and enforcement of mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as well as its instant and near-hermetic sealing-off of all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping the spread of the virus far earlier than in other countries and enabling a swifter post-pandemic recovery.'
5. The Unnamed U.S.-China War Simulation
The title of this simulation remains undisclosed to the public, though it is known to have taken place in the fall of 2020.
The simulation starts with a biowarfare assault by China on U.S. Navy ships. As the Navy struggles to contain the infection and understand what is happening, China announces that it is conducting a large-scale military exercise and repositioning its assets. However, this is merely a cover for a swift invasion of Taiwan, unhindered by the weakened U.S. Navy.
The outcome of the simulation is another wargame resulting in a U.S. defeat at the hands of China.
4. SPARS
In today's world, we have more ways to communicate than ever before. With this in mind, public health officials designed the SPARS simulation in 2017. Its purpose was to figure out the most effective communication strategies in the event of a pandemic.
In this scenario, a new respiratory virus, SPARS, is discovered and brought to the U.S. after a small Baptist church returns from humanitarian aid work in the Philippines, following a devastating flood.
The exercise aimed to improve consistency in interagency messaging and media relations, with a special focus on finding the best methods to counter misinformation and rumors spreading through social media. You can access the full exercise documentation online.
3. Cyber Polygon
Organized by the World Economic Forum in early 2021, Cyber Polygon was a global simulation with participants from around the world. In this exercise, a 'cyber pandemic' was wreaking havoc, crippling much of the internet and leaving cyber infrastructure inoperable.
The damage amounted to billions of dollars, and participants in the simulation were tasked with figuring out the best ways to halt the virus's spread and prevent such an event from occurring in the future.
One of the primary strategies to combat the cyber pandemic involved severing all devices from the internet, potentially through the use of an internet kill switch.
2. Event 201
In October 2019, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, World Economic Forum, and other organizations conducted Event 201 to examine how the world would respond to a new strain of coronavirus sweeping across the globe.
The scenario depicted the novel coronavirus jumping from bats to pigs, and eventually to humans at a wet market in South America. From there, it spreads quickly, ultimately resulting in the death of 65 million people worldwide.
The final reflections from the tabletop exercise concluded that there needs to be improved collaboration between public and private sectors. Just three months later, the term 'coronavirus' would become part of daily conversations around the world.
1. CONPLAN 8888
Is U.S. Strategic Command preparing for a zombie apocalypse? It might seem unbelievable, but this scenario was thoroughly war-gamed in 2011. The exercise was designed to train students at the Joint Combined Warfighting School without causing any diplomatic tension, should plans for responding to a potential Chinese invasion be leaked.
The exercise report includes details on various zombie types, the most effective weapons and tactics for defeating them, and specific locations within the U.S. that are most likely to withstand a zombie apocalypse.
