What does the future hold for the Internet?

The Internet, though only a few decades old, has already undergone remarkable transformation. From a collection of independent networks to a vast global network, it now serves as a vital hub for business, communication, entertainment, and education. Accessing this immense network is now possible through countless devices.

What comes next? With the ability to instantly access obscure details on any topic through just a couple of taps on a smartphone, where else can we go from here? The future remains uncertain, but the possibilities are undeniably thrilling.

One thing that seems certain is the global rise in data transmission speeds. According to Akamai Technologies, which releases a quarterly state of the Internet report, the average global transmission speed in late 2009 was 1.7 megabits per second [source: Akamai]. In comparison, Bell Labs holds the record for data transmission speed at an impressive 100 petabits per second [source: PhysOrg]. This equates to 100 billion megabits per second, meaning you could transfer 400 DVDs of data every second at that speed.

There's a vast difference between what we can currently do and what is commercially available. However, as time goes on, the cost of creating ultra-high-speed networks will drop. Soon, average consumers will be able to download a high-definition movie in just a second or play cloud-based video games without experiencing any lag.

As wired connections achieve unprecedented speeds, wireless technology is also advancing. With technologies like LTE and WiMAX, we can now access the Internet wirelessly at speeds on par with broadband connections. This also opens up opportunities for portable devices like smartphones, laptops, and tablets to connect to the Internet without relying on wires.

We believe the Internet will continue to grow faster and become more pervasive. But what else might the future have in store for us?

Net Neutrality and Proprietary Platforms

For the past couple of decades, a significant debate has been taking place. This debate centers around net neutrality, with both proponents and opponents offering differing views. Net neutrality is a broad term encompassing many related ideas. One of the key concepts is that everyone should have equal access to all parts of the Internet, regardless of the service they use.

Some Internet service providers (ISPs) disagree with this principle. They argue that it limits their control over their own services. If an ISP could strike deals with content providers, it could offer preferential treatment to those partners. Let's explore an example.

Imagine you've subscribed to ISP A, which has made an agreement with Web site X. As part of this deal, ISP A's customers enjoy the fastest connections when accessing Web site X. Meanwhile, Web site Y, a competitor of X, experiences slower traffic or even complete blockages due to the deal. As a result, customers are more likely to visit X instead of Y, leading to decreased traffic for Web site Y.

If we expand the scenario, it becomes even more concerning. Picture an Internet where the websites you can access are entirely dependent on which ISP you have. In certain regions, you might not even have a choice of ISP, as one company could control the entire local market. This would mean you'd be limited to whatever access the ISP decides to provide, which goes against the core principles of net neutrality.

Proprietary platforms also pose a potential risk to the Internet. Devices like gaming consoles, smartphones, and entertainment systems are driving developers to create Internet-based applications. However, while these apps enhance the functionality of devices, they are also contributing to divisions within the Internet. As each platform becomes more restricted, developers face the challenge of deciding which platforms to support.

In the end, this could result in device owners having different experiences when they access the Internet. If this trend persists, it may become increasingly difficult to engage in a meaningful conversation about the Internet, as each person’s view will be shaped by the device they use.

It’s possible that open platforms will garner the most support and outlast proprietary ones. However, this might be a long-term scenario. In the coming years, we are likely to see more closed systems accessing the Internet.

How could the Internet transform us?

The Internet and Human Intelligence

Nicholas Carr penned an article titled "Is Google making us stupid?" In it, Carr mentioned that he had observed his increasing dependence on the Internet for research and entertainment, which seemed to cause other cognitive abilities to decline. One such ability was his concentration or focus. He speculated that the nature of how we browse the Internet -- constantly jumping from one piece of information to another, especially across the World Wide Web -- might be a key factor [source: The Atlantic].

Could the Internet impact how humans think? On one hand, we now have unprecedented access to a vast library of information. Questions ranging from "What is the Big Bang theory?" to "How long should dough rise?" can be answered with just a few clicks. But does the ease of this access come at the cost of our ability to think for ourselves?

There appears to be a link between how we record and access information and the way we think. As we create systems to preserve our knowledge for future generations, we offload that responsibility onto a non-living entity. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that we become less intelligent.

Not everyone shares Carr's viewpoint. The Pew Research Center conducts an annual survey regarding the future of the Internet, polling experts and industry analysts on various topics. In the 2010 report, one of the questions asked whether the experts agreed with Carr’s claim that Google -- and the Internet in general -- were making us less intelligent. Eighty-one percent of respondents disagreed.

It’s true that access to information does not equate to intelligence. While you may be able to look up a fact, that doesn’t automatically mean you understand the significance of the fact or its context. The Internet serves as a tool to assist us in learning, but it does not replace the learning process itself.

Optimists believe that the Internet will offer insights into our own nature. The reach of the Internet is extending into countries and cultures that were once isolated from the global community. Some hope that the Internet will create a shared platform for people from different backgrounds to understand one another, possibly leading to an era of peace and cooperation.

In the end, the Internet could begin to erase traditional boundaries between nations and cultures. However, such global change is not simple. It may take decades before we notice any significant shift in the way we perceive each other. Skeptics may believe that even a tool as transformative and widespread as the Internet won’t be enough to overcome the challenges we face in achieving global unity.