What is the meaning of 'Peak Infection'?

The United States has now reached a stage where the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has soared into the hundreds of thousands, with the death toll now in the tens of thousands. Although these numbers are troubling, the slowing rate of increase signals that our efforts—such as hand-washing, staying home, and physical distancing—are beginning to have an effect.

Perhaps, just perhaps, we’ve finally hit the peak that has been widely discussed, with the curve flattening enough to prevent the system from being completely overwhelmed. Maybe, just maybe, the number of new cases will continue to decrease.

However, reaching the peak is like turning down the volume from 11 to 10. While the volume is lower, it doesn’t mean we can stop protecting ourselves. For this pandemic, reaching the peak doesn’t mean there are no new cases—it simply means there are fewer. It’s also crucial to remember that many cases are still active, and people remain at a high risk of becoming sick.

Most of us understood the need to flatten the curve and stayed home, doing our part to protect the safety of healthcare workers. These monumental efforts have made a difference, although for those who are ill or have lost loved ones, this may feel like too little, too late. It also provides little comfort to the millions who have lost their jobs.

What's next?

With the decrease in new cases comes the looming question: What happens now?

As we all struggle to get through each moment, it's worth taking a step back to consider what might lie ahead in the coming weeks. While we all yearn for the end to be near, the road to recovery is long, and it begins with this initial drop in new cases.

“If we open up too early, we will have a surge again,” warns Hardeep Singh, a professor of medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

More testing is crucial

The World Health Organization has established six key criteria that must be met before society can fully re-open. These include controlling transmission, ensuring safe testing and care for all individuals, minimizing risks in hospitals, nursing homes, and workplaces, monitoring imported cases, and ensuring complete community involvement.

As of now, the U.S. is far from ready to re-open.

“We are not doing enough testing,” says Singh. There are testing shortages and a lack of comprehensive contact tracing, especially in high-infection areas. This means that when someone tests positive, their contacts often aren’t notified or given the chance to be tested.

“Testing is only effective when followed by containment,” says Singh. “The issue with reopening is that we need to ramp up contact tracing and containment efforts.”

Opening too early will result in more cases

Already, we see impatience growing as people push for society to re-open. States like Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and South Carolina have announced plans to start easing some restrictions, despite still having new confirmed cases. Georgia, Texas, and South Carolina also report some of the lowest testing rates in the nation.

“People want to return to work,” says Singh.

People yearn for their old lives. They want to get back to some version of what life was like before. However, as much as people long for a return to normalcy, we are far from being in a position to make that a reality.

Reopening too soon could likely trigger another surge in cases, leading to another round of lockdowns. This is particularly true if testing is insufficient, as widespread testing enables experts to detect rising infections in the community before patients even begin showing up in the ICU. Additionally, the nature of community spread will vary from state to state, and between urban and rural areas. Without adequate testing, we won’t be able to predict what’s coming or understand what’s happening until it’s too late.

“Some plans are going to need to be adaptable,” Singh states, emphasizing that people should prepare for a new lifestyle for some time. As we approach what could be the peak of infections, it's important to remember that this will be a long-term challenge for all of us.